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FANTASY BASEBALL – Aroldis Chapman’s Fantasy Impact


BaseballMLB

Thorne’s 2016 MLB Fantasy Preview

2016 Positional Ranks: 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | C | OF | SP | RP   Misc: Aroldis Chapman Trade Value
Divisional Break-Downs: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West
Podcasts: ’16 Strategy w/ Fred Zinkie
Team Previews: Blue Jays | Orioles | Yankees | Red Sox | Rays | Mets | Nationals | Phillies | Braves | Marlins | Twins | Indians | Royals | White Sox | Tigers | Brewers

 

*Chapman has since been banned by the MLB for 30 games under their new Domestic Violence Policy*

On its surface, the trade of established relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees for a quartet of now Cincinnati minor leaguers is not all that complex to break down. With the recent success of the Kansas City Royals stemming most prominently from the exploits of their superior bullpen, New York decided it would be beneficial to take a similar route – thus creating possibly the best bullpen (especially with Greg Holland sidelined for the duration of 2016) in baseball led by the aforementioned Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances. The issue here is not in real-life execution, by all accounts the Yankees, from a purely talent perspective, made out like bandits in this deal. No, the consequences come in the form of fantasy, where New York now employs, at least for now, three of the Top 10 RPs in standard Yahoo! formats last season. Even beyond save opportunities, it gets a little complicated.

For the purposes of this argument, let’s assume the Yankees don’t trade Miller in the coming months as has been speculated and rumoured even before the Chapman trade. This would leave New York with 2015’s fourth best relief pitcher (Miller), sixth best (Betances), and seventh best (Chapman). Obviously the most immediate impact of this deal lies in either Miller or Chapman retaining or inheriting the closer’s role in the Big Apple. As the second highest-scoring offence in baseball last season, the Yankees mustered a somewhat pedestrian 60 save opportunities, with Miller recording the final out in 36 of the team’s eventual 48 saves, even with the former Red Sox missing several weeks on the DL. That’s not a whole lot – especially when you consider last year’s saves leader, Mark Melancon, recorded 51 saves single-handedly. Realistically, it’d be beneficial for those drafting to know definitively that one or the other was the full-time closer and, considering they’re both left-handed, you’d assume that dream could come to fruition with no platoon, based on projected ninth inning order, coming into play. However, you’d be wrong.

Though there are several similarities between Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman beyond their handedness (the pair ranked 1-2 in K/9 last season respectively), the splits tell a different story. As you would expect, throughout the course of his career, Chapman has dominated left-handed batters allowing just seven extra-base hits to the 336 he’s faced since 2010. Right-handed batters have fared far better, at least in the context of the game’s hardest-throwing pitcher, posting a .251 wOBA and collecting 16 of the 17 home runs the former Red has surrendered. Contrasting that, since the beginning of 2013, for argument’s sake the true turning point in Miller’s career, the tall left-hander has posted a .217 opponent wOBA to right-handed hitters, a mark only bested over that time frame by Jose Fernandez. Strangely, Miller has struggled, again, only when juxtaposed to himself, versus lefties over that span, allowing them to hit to a .259 wOBA against him. Now, while this clearly supports the use of a closer by committee situation, recent baseball patterns tell us this will not be the case. A closer will be chosen. Roles will be cemented. If I had to pick as of this second, I’d say with his better numbers against the more common right-handed hitter and his superior control, Miller would begin 2016 with New York’s closer job, submarining Chapman’s value. Still, the most delicate situation in this mess belongs to the man we’ve yet to discuss.

Dellin Betances recorded only nine saves last season. He could claim only one the season prior. Yet, through sheer innings bulk, Betances found himself as a Top 10 RP in both campaigns, his 174 innings pitched nearly 20 more than any other reliever over that timeframe. These innings are now in question. Even looking at the last two seasons in the most basic of terms, it’s clear the Yankees were already concerned about Betances’ workload. In 2014, the 6’8 righty threw 90 innings in 70 appearances (1.29 innings per appearance) going more than a single frame in half those outings. In 2015, though Betances did in fact pitch in four more games, his innings per appearance fell to 1.14 and he worked an inning-plus in just 26 contests. This drop-off may not seem like much, but it was the difference between Betances finishing 2014 as the second most valuable RP on Yahoo! and sixth most last season even with eight more saves and six wins, which, if we’re splitting hairs (and we always are) are specifically predicated on Betances finishing innings, something he’s more likely to sustain with a higher workload.

From an advanced perspective, once again, nothing about Betances is minimalist. After showing immaculate control in 2014 allowing just 2.40 walks per nine innings, that figure shot back up to his minor league totals in 2015 with the Yankee posting a more robust 4.29 number. The effect of this was two-fold. Not only did Betances see his FIP rise from 1.64 to 2.48, but his pitches per inning jumped a full pitch from 15.2 to 16.3 – not great if your organization is trying to minimize the impact on your arm. Now, like most strikeout pitchers, Betances will never be economical with his pitches, but he was pushing the limits of that belief like no one else last season. He’s adverse to pitching to contact with his 63.2% opponent contact rate the lowest of any pitcher in 2015 with at least 80 innings thrown and, with subpar control and batters likely trying to work counts anyway against the intimidating Betances, only Mike Bolsinger had a lower opponent swing rate than Betances’ 41.8% mark. Without a massive philosophy shift, it seems impossible that Betances pitches per inning will lessen any time soon and with now unmatched back-end bullpen depth, if Joe Girardi so wished, Betances’ innings could be eased down.

Again, this is all speculation. All three of Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances are indescribable talents that create a hilariously amazing bullpen in New York. Sure, Miller might be traded, Chapman might “struggle” against right-handed hitters, and Betances might waste too many pitches, but the trio also strike out nearly every single opponent they face. However, its unlikely that, if on the same roster, all three once again finish the season as Top 10 relief pitchers. In fact, depending on who wins out the battle for the closer’s role, there might only be one.



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