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FANTASY FOOTBALL – Week 14 FLEX Ranks & Playoff Tips


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THE FLEXPERT v14.14 – Week 14 FLEX Ranks & Playoff Tips

Proud may be tooooooo strong of a word, but I was satisfied having Jake Ciely join me as the inaugural guest on THE FIRST EVAAAAAAAAAA episode of the video Pat Mayo Hour. Yes, I have a TV show all to my own. It’s OK to be jealous. In fact, I demand you be.

Week 14 Ranks: FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST | Ranks Debate
More Week 14: Pickup AP? | RB Injuries/Pickups | WR Injuries
Week 14 Pickups: Waivers/FAAB | RB Adds | WR Adds | TE Adds
Week 14: Game Picks & Preview | DFS Legal Issues | Spread Picks
Fantasy Playoffs: RB Handcuff Ranks | Playoff Ranks & Strategy | Best Schedules
Mayo & Lisa Ann: Rest of Season Outlooks | Breaking into Fantasy

I’m working out the kinks: New camera angels, hilarious stuff to put in the background, getting Jake LIVE on video from the other end so I can make fun the lack of decor in his apartment – that sorta stuff. Oh, and sound effects. There will definitely be more sound effects on the way. Like, whenever Jake’s head emerges from behind the graphic, a slide whistle will accompany the motion. This way, I can make him look foolish and destroy his credibly without actually making any valid points. I’m all about subterfuge; it’s much easier than research.

Soon though – BOOM – I’ll be fully operational. Consider all your DFS, football, baseball, basketball (NCAA & NBA!!!), golf, hockey and hopefully not soccer needs met. Subscribe to FNSTY Sports Network for the video version, and in the meantime, for the plain ol’ audio podcast, click the link.

Here’s sneak peak at Jake and I breaking down this week’s running back rankings from the pilot. Oh, we debate Mark Ingram too. If you’ve ever wondered why I don’t rank that awful Ingram, we hash it out…

Usually, I begin each FLEXPERT with some sort of strategy or nonsense (OR BOTH!!!) essay. Unfortunately, there’s really not much more to say. I went over some of my favorite dirty tricks and how to properly maximize the potential of your roster last week. Oh, there’s D/ST rankings and streamable TE pickups for Week 15 and 16 in there too.

Now, it’s all about reliability. If one whimsical start/sit decision goes awry, your season’s finished. So, I’ve decided to list my circle of trust at each position. These are the players that have consistently produced at the highest levels, even in poor situations. I can handle losing my playoff matchup with Marqise Lee going off on my bench because I didn’t possess the foresight to start him over Odell Beckham Jr. Flip this hypothetical scenario around, and I likely wouldn’t feel comfortable leaving a dark room for weeks, maybe months. Me, you, – everyone – is going to make incorrect decisions. It’s Fantasy football, it happens. But there’s a huge difference between making an incorrect move and the wrong move. Don’t outsmart yourself trying to be hero. Even if a stupid decision works out in your favor, probability dictates it won’t most of the time. Why put yourself in that position? Regardless of opponent, these are the players I trust. Health pending, obv:

Quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck

Running Backs – Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Justin Forsett, Marshawn Lynch and Rashad Jennings

Wide Receivers – Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham Jr., Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate III, Brandon Marshall, Brandon LaFell, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans

Tight Ends – Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas and Greg Olsen

Everyone’s circle of trust differs. If you want to start Kenny Britt over Mike Evans because he has a way better matchup, go for it. In the end, it’s your Fantasy championship, not mine. Remember, though, I did warn you.

Also, don’t f*** up. That’s actually the most important strategy to put into practice.

#BINGEWATCH

Subscribe to Pat Mayo Hour on YouTube

What’s that, another Pat Mayo Hour? YUUUP!!!! Cedric Hopkins from FieldandCourt.com joined me to discuss the ridiculous class action lawsuit filed against FanDuel for not immediately paying out a deposit bonus. We chatted about the legal hurdles Daily Fantasy sites may have to leap in the coming months, at both state and federal levels, how the NFL’s arbitrary personal conduct policy may lead to a lawsuit from Ray Rice and the legal ramifications of Darnell Dockett live tweeting and taking pictures while serving jury duty. Oh, we tried to figure out how Commissioner Goodell would react to this theoretical situation: If a player loses a finger on the field and another player eats said finger, but claims he was protein deficient, would his suspension be more or less than Josh Gordon’s?

WEEK 14 Top 20 QBs (Most Updated QB RANKS)

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Andrew Luck
  5. Tom Brady
  6. I’m Philip Rivers?
  7. Ryan Tannehill
  8. Hunky Tony Romo
  9. Matthew Stafford
  10. Russell Wilson
  11. Smokin’ Jay Cutler
  12. Gonzo Kaepernick
  13. Mark Sanchez
  14. Ben Roethlisberger
  15. Shaun Hill
  16. Matt Ryan
  17. Eli Manning Face
  18. HELLO JOE Flacco. Iron helps him play!
  19. WHOOAAAAA CAMMMMMM
  20. Teddy Throwsevelt

EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX

  1. BAL/MIA
  2. PIT/CIN
  3. CAR/NO
  4. IND/CLE
  5. HOU/JAX
  6. STL/WAS
  7. TB/DET
  8. NYG/TEN
  9. NYJ/MIN

SUICIDE LAYUP

GB over ATL

WEEK 14 D/ST RANKS

  1. HOU at JAX
  2. DET vs TB
  3. PHI vs SEA
  4. GB vs ATL
  5. SF at OAK
  6. DEN vs BUF
  7. MIN vs NYJ
  8. STL at WAS
  9. SEA at PHI
  10. JAX at HOU
  11. WAS vs STL
  12. NE at SD
  13. ARZ vs KC
  14. TEN vs NYG

SUPERLOCK

JAX (+6)

THE REVENGE SOCIETY

Percy Harvin at MIN
Kyle Orton at DEN
Martellus Bennett vs DAL
Trent Richardson at CLE

QUICK READS

Earning a full scholarship to Florida? Getting drafted? Making the all-rookie team? Having kids? Nope. Colt McCoy’s the best thing that ever happened to Jordan Reed. Seriously. Two games with McCoy has resulted in 16 catches (on 20 targets), 163 yards and a score for Reed. This is that potential we were all gushing over in the preseason. Before he kept getting injured, over and over… and over again. Just beware, all this usage will probably cause him to pull a hamstring at some point. However right now, Reed’s healthy, so get him in.

There was only one reason Arian Foster wasn’t ranked inside the Top 5 RBs last week. Those pesky injury concerns. After playing 73-percent of Texans snaps, I’m pretty certain he’s fine. And, his involvement in the receiving game makes him an especially attractive Daily Fantasy play this week. Foster’s already averaging 3.5 receptions per game, that number could double against Jacksonville. The Jags give up more than six catches a week to opposing RBs. The most in football. At Foster’s elevated DFS price, many are going to fade him and save salary. DON’T!!! He’s the number one player of the week.

Some consider Jarvis Landry a PPR-only player, but he’s not, he just happens to have a higher floor in PPR formats. The way his role’s blown up over the past five weeks makes him startable in any format. Landry’s seen more targets than Dez Bryant and Jordan Matthews over that time, and 43 looks to teammate Mike Wallace’s 39. Now, Landry draws the Ravens, the most generous unit to Fantasy wide outs. And most of that damage has been done outside of Baltimore city limits. The Ravens allow a high league 237 yards per game on the road.

Sorry about recommending Isaiah Crowell against Buffalo. That was my bad. His awesomeness clouded my senses to the brutal matchup. This guy’s good, more so recently. The last month, Crowell still has more carries than Andre Ellington and, even after the brutal Bills outing, more yards per carry than Matt Forte. To add on, with the increased snap count, CROWWWWWWWW’s added a receiving element to his game; 55-percent of his routes run this season have come in the last three weeks. Perfect timing, since no team is worse than Indy at limiting pass catching RBs. The Colts  are allowing 62 yards per game to backs through the air. If Crowell gets 20 touches, and a sprinkling of goal line opportunities, could be a Top five play for the week. There is one issue, though. He popped up on the early week injury report with a hip issue. If he’s out, Terrence West would become a fringe Top 20 RB for the week.

One thing you can count on? The over hitting in a primetime affair. And with Philip Rivers decked out in his Sunday evening baby blues, he’ll come through against the Patriots. Mainly, because the Chargers will likely abandon their awful run game early to keep pace on the scoreboard. Oh, New England’s been rather generous to opposing QBs since September too. They’ve ceded an average of two TD passes per game since Week 4, and over that time, pivots have scored a minimum of 16 points in all but one game. Two weeks ago against Matt Stafford. Rivers is a top play this week.

The ebbs and flows of the season have certain players trending upwards when you need it most. Kendall Wright is one of those players. His catches and yardage have ballooned lately; his 81 routes run the last two weeks are his most in any two game stretch this year. Plus, no more Justin Hunter. Hunter’s been put on IR with a lacerated spleen. Ouch. And, this week, Wright gets the perfect opponent. The Giants are giving up 36 Fantasy points per game to receivers in their last three. Yes, Dallas has Dez, but what’s their excuse for the Jags and Niners?

Yes, we just watched the Colts rip the Redskins secondary to shreds, and you may be thinking, “that was Andrew Luck, he it does that to everyone. There’s no way Shaun Hill could do the same.” Wrong, Wrong. Well, five touchdown passes may be a lofty goal to set, but multiple passing scores is certainly achievable. Yes, Hill’s not great, however, Washington’s pass defense is worse. Especially at home. In their last four games in D.C., the Skins are giving up an average of 24.5 Fantasy points to QBs. And that wasn’t against Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. It was Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Russell Wilson and Charlie Whitehurst banking Fantasy points. Hill is a capable stream in deep leagues and selling for a song in Daily formats.

Streamers, you’re on notice. While Scott Chandler draws a favorable matchup against Denver, in a game where you’d expect the Bills to be throwing it a lot, I prefer Jermaine Gresham as the best widely available tight end option. Somehow, his opponent is even softer than Chandler’s. Pittsburgh’s given up a TD to a big man in five straight, and with Tyler Eifert’s return not coming soon, Gresham’s the only TE to do the damage. And the best news, he’s selling for just a shade over the minimum on Draftkings and next to nothing on Fanduel as well. If you’re building a super team, Gresham’s the perfect back end salary cap savior.

Quick Tip: If a team has a formidable pass rush, use them against the Jets. This week, that’s the Vikings, who’ve pounded the passer in all non Aaron Rodgers/Jay Cutler games. Basically, any QB that can’t get the ball out quickly is going to find themselves counting clouds fairly often. Take out the Packers and Bears games, and Minnesota’s generating five sacks per contest in the last two months. And Geno Smith is the worst pivot they’ve faced to date. Stream with confidence.

The Browns won’t name a starter until Wednesday, but it’s hard to imagine Johnny F***ING FOOTBALL not under center against the Colts. Terrific news if you need a QB. Manziel possesses that ever-valuable ability to pile up rushing yards and, more importantly, rushing touchdowns. And with Cleveland presumably playing catchup for a lot of this game, embrace JOHNNY GARBAGE TIME!!! Just make sure he’s actually starting first. Ohhhhhhh, what’s that, it is Wednesday you say? And Cleveland decided to keep rolling that corpse Brian Hoyer on to the field? The same Brian Hoyer that scored just one more Fantasy point over his last two games than Manziel did on one drive. Smart. Either way, if you’re playing roulette at QB week-to-week, what’s the harm in grabbing Manziel for upside? I think I’d actually play him over Hoyer in this game anyway. We’ll probably see him at some point after Hoyer stinks his way off the field.

Listen, I know you don’t want to play Frank Gore. No one does. For every one OK week he churns out, Gore posts three stinkers. However he’s in a really good spot against Oakland, because he’s San Francisco’s lead back. Primary ball handlers from the NFC West are destroying the Raiders. In two games versus the division, the opposition’s RB1 has posted 307 yards and 5 touchdowns on 43 touches. If there’s a week to play Gore and feel alright about it, this is that week. Just remember to say some prayers from now until kickoff because that stat is really stupid and ultimately meaningless. Fun though!

PPR WEEK 14 FLEX RANKS

NOTE: PPR scoring only truly affects outliers. PPR Ranks and Standard Ranks are similar with the exception extreme reception magnets like Pierre Thomas, Benny Cunningham & Darren Sproles (PPR Positive) and the stonehanded Alfred Morris, Frank Gore & Stevan Ridley (PPR Negative).

Week 14 Ranks: FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST |Ranks Debate
Week 14 Pickups: Waivers/FAAB | RB Adds | WR Adds | TE Adds
Week 14: DFS Legal Issues | Early Betting Lines/Manziel/Playoff Odds
Fantasy Playoffs: RB Handcuff Ranks | Playoff Ranks & Strategy | Best Schedules
Mayo & Lisa Ann: Rest of Season Outlooks | Breaking into Fantasy

Probable: Arian Foster (Groin), Latavius Murray (Dizzies)
Questionable: Sammy Watkins (Groin), Roddy White (Ankle), The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald (Knee), Torrey Smith (Knee), Reggie Bush X (Ankle), Isaiah Crowell (Hip), Charles Dice Clay (Hammy), Dwayne Allen (Ankle),  Khiry Robinson (Forearm)
Doubtful [Not Ranked]: Kendall Wright (Hand), Montee Ball (Groin), Ronnie Hillman (Foot), Rashad Jennings (Ankle), Jordan Cameron (Dizzies), Cooper Helfet (Ankle), Jace Amaro (Dizzies), DeSean Jackson (Leg),  Julius Thomas (Ankle), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Back)
Out: Brandin Weber Cooks (Thumb), Justin Hunter (Spleen), Miles Austin 316 (Abdomen), Andre Ellington (Hip), DeAngelo Williams (Hand), He went to Jerick McKinnon (Back)
Cut: Santonio Holmes, Jason Avant, Austin Pettismile
BACK!!!!!!!!: Josh Gordon (Reefer Madness)

  1. Arian Foster
  2. Demaryius Thomas
  3. Calvin Johnson
  4. Antonio Brown
  5. Le’Veon Bell
  6. Eddie Lacy
  7. Jordy Nelson
  8. Josh Gordon
  9. Emmanuel Sanders
  10. Julio Jones
  11. A.J. Green
  12. #GRONKSMASH!!!!!
  13. The New ODB, Odell Beckham Jr.
  14. Justin Forsett
  15. T.Y. “Gene Mean” Hilton
  16. Randall Cobb
  17. Jamaal Charles
  18. C.J. Anderson
  19. Marshawn Lynch
  20. DeAndre Hopkins
  21. Golden Tate III
  22. Brandon LaFell Sexwell
  23. Kelvin BenJAMIN’
  24. Jimmy Graham
  25. Oh, hai Mark Ingram (Special Guest Rank: Fantasy Pros Consensus)
  26. LeSean McCoy
  27. Isaiah Crowell
  28. Money Mike Evans
  29. Kenny Stills to Pay the Billz
  30. Julian Edelman
  31. Fred Jackson
  32. Tre Mason
  33. Denard Dog Robinson
  34. Ryan Mathews
  35. Alfred Morris
  36. Jordan Matthews
  37. Jarvis Landry
  38. Greg Olsen
  39. Delanie Walker
  40. Jordan Reed
  41. Keenan Allen
  42. Mike Wallace
  43. Anquan Boldin
  44. Stedman Bailey
  45. Mohamed Sanu
  46. Robert Woods
  47. Marques Colston
  48. Nasty Nate Washington 666
  49. Frank Gore
  50. Andre Williams
  51. Dolphins Starting RB
  52. LeGarrette Montez Blount
  53. Daniel Herron
  54. Jonathan Stewart
  55. Jeremy Maclin
  56. Martavis Bryant
  57. Marqise Lee
  58. Kyle Rudolph
  59. Antonio Gates
  60. Torrey Smith
  61. Andrew Hawkins
  62. Andre Johnson
  63. Malcom Floyd
  64. Joique Bell
  65. Shane Vereen
  66. Gio Bernard
  67. Dwayne Allen
  68. Jermaine Gresham
  69. Scott Chandler
  70. Darren Sproles
  71. Jeremy Hill
  72. Charles Johnson
  73. Davante Adams
  74. John Brown
  75. Greg Jennings
  76. The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald
  77. Sammy Watkins
  78. Rueben Randle
  79. Kenny Britt
  80. Vincent Jackson
  81. Michael CRABPEOPLE!!!
  82. STEVE SMIFF SEÑOR
  83. Pierre Thomas
  84. Latavius Murray
  85. Bishop Cranky
  86. Terrance West
  87. Reggie Bush X
  88. Steven Jackson
  89. Matt Asiata
  90. Chris Ivory
  91. Chris Johnson
  92. Marcel Reece
  93. Trent Richardson (Special Guest Rank:Fantasy Pros Consensus)
  94. Carlos Hyde
  95. Doug Martin
  96. Stepfan Taylor
  97. Percy Harvin a Time
  98. Reggie Wayne
  99. Doug Baldwin
  100. Eric Decker
  101. Andre Roberts
  102. Cecil Shorts III
  103. TRAVIS KELCE!!!!!!!
  104. Coby Fleener
  105. Mychal Rivera
  106. Charles Clay
  107. Larry Donnell
  108. Heath Miller
  109. Owen Daniels
  110. Tavon Austin
  111. Michael Floyd
  112. Hollywood Chris Hogan
  113. Markus Cream of Wheaton: NOW WITH EXTRA GLUTEN!!!
  114. Wesley Welker
  115. Pierre Garçon
  116. Dwayne Bowe
  117. Allen Hurns
  118. Darren McFadden
  119. Theo Riddick
  120. Bobby November Rainey
  121. Roy Helu Jr.
  122. Benny Cunningham, and his wife, Oprah
  123. Dexter McCluster: Telling you not to LOL and Drive
  124. Chris Ogbonnaya
  125. Ben Tate III
  126. Branden Oliver
  127. Anthony Dixon
  128. Robert Turbin
  129. Alfred Blue
  130. Juwan Thompson
  131. Andre Holmes
  132. Riley Cooper
  133. Derek Hagan
  134. Dr. Jacoby Jones
  135. Philly Brown
  136. Devin Hester
  137. Jermaine Kearse
  138. Harry Douglas
  139. Fake John Brown
  140. Travis All About the Benjamins
  141. Hakeem Nicks
  142. Jarius Wright
  143. LOUIS MURPHY!!!!
  144. Brandon Lloyd
  145. Josh Huff
  146. Paul Richardson
  147. Brian Hartline
  148. Preston Parker
  149. Taylor “Sledgehammer” Gabriel
  150. The Walls of Jerricho Cotchery
  151. Cordarrelle Patterson
  152. Eddie Royal
  153. Zach Ertz
  154. Brent Celek
  155. Eric Ebron
  156. Garrett Graham
  157. Anthony Fasano
  158. Marion Grice
  159. Tony Moeaki
  160. Tim Wright
  161. Niles Paul
  162. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
  163. Andrew Quarless
  164. Levine Trololo
  165. Rod Streater
  166. Stevie Johnson
  167. Lance Moore
  168. Travaris Cadet
  169. Jonas Gray
  170. Devonte Freeman
  171. Christine Michael
  172. Toby Gerhart
  173. Mike Tolbert
  174. Chris Polk
  175. Charles Sims
  176. Maurice Jones-Drew
  177. Joe Banyard
  178. Shonn Greene
  179. Knile Davis
  180. Lorenzo Taliaferro
  181. Bryce Brown
  182. Benard Pierce
  183. Orleans Darkwa
  184. Donte Moncrief
  185. Brice Butler
  186. Cody Latimer
  187. Andre Caldwell
  188. Ace Sanders
  189. Kenbrell Thompkins
  190. Richard Rodgers
  191. Jim Dray
  192. Chase Ford
  193. Brandon Myers
  194. HEY VERN Davis
  195. Jacob Tamme
  196. James Casey
  197. Junior Hemingway
  198. Frankie Hammond
  199. Jeremy Kerley
  200. Dion Sims
  201. Clay Harbor
  202. Brandon Pettigrew
  203. Marcedes Lewis
  204. Crockett Gillmore
  205. Jeff Cumberland
  206. Ladarius Green
  207. Daniel Fells
  208. Brandon Pettigrew
  209. Brandon Bostick
  210. T.J. Graham
  211. Marlon Brown
  212. Corey Washington
  213. Dane Sanzenbacher
  214. Chris Givens
  215. Dri Archer #DANGERZONE
  216. Damien Williams
  217. Jonathan Grimes (Or, Grimey, as he likes to be called)
  218. James Starks
  219. Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
  220. Jacquizz Rodgers
  221. Michael Bush
  222. Donald Brown
  223. Mike James
  224. Ronnie Brown
  225. John Khun
  226. Bilal POWWWWell
  227. Jordan Todman
  228. Super Storm Johnson
  229. Brandon Bolden
  230. Chris Gragg
  231. Rhett Ellison
  232. Vance McDonald
  233. Josh Hill
  234. John Carlson
  235. Ben Watson
  236. Cedric Peerman
  237. DeAnthony Thomas
  238. Leon Washington, The Professional
  239. Daniel Thomas
  240. Silas Redd
  241. Zac StacyFilm Credits: “Super Mario Bros.” as Goomba
  242. Kyle Juszczyk
  243. Jackie Battle
  244. James White
  245. Darrel Young
  246. Jalen Parmele
  247. Corey Fuller
  248. Ricardo Lockette
  249. Greg Salas
  250. Jarrett Boykin
  251. Country Music Sensation Griff Whalen
  252. Ryan Broyles
  253. Brian ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND IT’S TYMS FOR A CHANGE
  254. Danny Amendola
  255. Vincent Brown
  256. Brandon Tate
  257. Ted Ginn Jr.
  258. Denarius Moore
  259. Brandon Gibson

WORST PLACE!!!

  1. Oh, hai Mark Ingram
  2. Lamar THRILLER
  3. Second Worst RB of all time, Trent Richardson
  4. Jared Cook

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