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FANTASY FOOTBALL – Pickups with Soft Playoff Schedules


FootballNFL

THE FLEXPERT v14.11 – Soft Playoff Schedule & Week 11 FLEX Ranks

Buy lows. Real buy lows. Guys no one wants, and ones that certainly won’t cost you anything of significance to acquire; they may be lingering on the back end of another roster or merely available for free on the waiver wire. They’re players you don’t need, especially right now, and hopefully will never have to use. Yet, having them stashed away on the bench provides a modest amount of insurance. If the worst happens in Week 15 and Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Demarco Murray, or whoever it is you depend on suddenly evaporates, WHAT CHA GONNA DO??? Well, if you grab a few of these guys, you’ll have successfully put yourself in a position to be proactive instead of reactive if the problem presents itself. Congrats!!! You’ve successfully lowered the probability of getting unlucky. Not significantly, but enough to matter.

Remember: Don’t fall into the fallacy that things will remain constant. Fantasy football isn’t Desmond Hume, Fantasy football oscillates. That’s why attempting to take advantage of soft playoff schedules is equally ridiculous and necessary.

Week 13 Ranks: QB | RB | WR |TE & D/ST 
Week 13: Waiver Wire | RB Adds/Timeshares | WR Adds | TE Pickups
Mayo & Lisa Ann: Rest of Season Outlooks | Breaking into Fantasy
Fantasy Playoffs: Pickups With Easy Matchups | Best Schedules

The fun factoid thrown around this week centered on the Bears’ laughable defense. Entering the season they had allowed 50+ points three times in their franchise’s 9000 year history. They’ve now done it three times in the past 20 minutes, probably again while you’ve been reading this. (Editor NoteTime periods an approximation). Will Chicago continue to sport the worst defense in the history of professional football? Unlikely. In fact, they may regress to slightly below league average. They’ll persist as a favorable matchup to square off against, but expecting any unit to be as prolific or as awful they are in the present moment is rather moronic. A 16 game schedule is a small sample as is, breaking it down into tinier segments allows for bigger outliers to surface. Trusting an extreme, positive or negative, is very high risk; performance has a far greater probability of normalizing than remaining polarized.

Simply buying players to exploit what appears to be a tremendous matchup on paper, while not a fool’s errand, may not be as impactful as you think. It’s why swapping, even marginally, better players for lesser assets with awesome Week 14-16 schedules isn’t a smart idea. Hold on to your studs, and target players no one wants instead. It allows you to retain your already strong starting lineup and add depth for little cost – you’ll be the hoppity frog of value.

*** Week 14-16 Opponents in Parenthesis

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo (CHI/PHI/IND)
Matthew Stafford (TB/MIN/CHI)
Robert Griffin III (STL/NYG/PHI)

It’s really too bad Tony Romo posted such gaudy numbers against the Jags. First, because everyone that owned him (myself included) gave him direct orders to ride the pine. Second, you can’t just buy him for nothing this week, however you could have if he had left London with stink lines radiating from his pours. Fortunately, because of his bye week and still present back problems, targeting Romo right now may still be the opportune time. If you offer just enough, preferably a player you don’t need that still has name value (lookin’ at you Andre Johnson and Wes Welker), you may be able to lead the Romo owner into believing they’re selling high on his services. No team currently in the playoff hunt is relying Matthew Stafford or Robert Griffin III as their primary pivot, they wouldn’t be in the post season picture if that was the case. Most teams rostering one of the duo either A) recently grabbed them off the waiver wire or B) found a better QB somewhere down the line; making each expendable. Both may be having down years, but a return to 80-percent of peak form, fused with these Week 14-16 matchups, and you have a combination that may unlock a Top 10 quarterback off the scrap heap.

Running Backs

Bishop Sankey (NYG/NYJ/JAX)
Chris Ivory (MIN/TEN/NE)
Pierre Thomas (CAR/CHI/ATL)

My feelings towards Bishop Sankey during his rookie season mirror Drake’s career arc. Sankey was one of the main RBs I advocated avoiding in the preseason. Now, I love the guy. What changed? There’s no expectation that he’s a starting fantasy RB anymore. He’s been dropped in a stunning amount of leagues, more so lately, which is kind of baffling. Sankey was a disaster at the beginning of the year, and likely should have been cut then, but over the Titans’ past four games, he’s been one of the safest Fantasy RBs in terms of opportunity. He’s averaged 17 touches per game in that period. And, the best part for his trade value, he hasn’t done squat with all those touches! If he can continue seeing the same workload into Weeks 14-16, the soft schedule should enhance his numbers. And injury pending, there’s no reason to think his role will be scaled back. If anything, it will expand. Coming off two straight mediocre games, pull a Clay Davis on the Chris Ivory owner in your league. And Lucky Pierre? His role is unknown in the Saints’ backfield coming off injury, but all three of his Fantasy playoff opponents have serious issues limiting RBs in the receiving game. He could be an excellent weapon to deploy in PPR leagues if he can resume playing 50-percent of New Orleans’ passing snaps.

Wide Receivers

Cecil Shorts III (HOU/BAL/TEN)
Davante Adams (ATL/BUF/TB)
Doug Baldwin (PHI/SF/ARI)

With Allen Robinson now out for the season, Cecil Shorts has started popping up on peoples’ radars, but not close to enough that you still can’t get him for nothing. He’ll continue hovering around double-digit targets every game and gets a trio of softies when it matters most. Pick him up, trade for him, do what you have to. Then, send him lots of Icy Hot to make sure his hamstring stays loose. Davante Adams is the best WR handcuff in the league, but he may not even need a series of unfortunate errors to befall Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb to produce usable totals at the end of the season. The schedule sets up nicely for him in his current role as Green Bay’s WR3, however, if something was to happen to Nelson or Cobb, I don’t see how I could rank him outside my Top 15 at WR. Don’t forget: since Doug Baldwin supplanted Percy Harvin as Seattle’s primary receiving option he’s averaging a shade under eight targets a game.

Tight Ends

Delanie Walker, if he’s not dead (NYG/NYJ/JAX)
Jason Witten (CHI/PHI/IND)
Zach Ertz (SEA/DAL/WAS)

Pounce now, while there’s still panic surrounding Delanie Walker’s concussion problems. In games where Walker hasn’t left due to dizzies or without Charlie Whitehurst under center, he’s been a Top 7 TE. And in these matchups, he should be even better down the stretch. Now that Jason Witten has become a bigger part of the Cowboys’ offense over the past month, this threesome of easy opposition morphed from ugly chicks into rock solid 7/10s. It seems like we’ve been waiting for Zach Ertz to break through all season, and, it’s just never happened. If you chose to rely on him, that failed miserably, but if you need a backup TE or possible a starter in a few weeks, gambling on Ertz and Mark Sanchez developing a rapport is a low risk investment. Since Ertz has been dropped in most leagues; it could yield giant dividends. If Sanchez continues to lean on James Casey, which I doubt, apply that logic to him instead.

D/ST

TEN (NYG/NYJ/JAX)
BAL (MIA/JAX/HOU)
GB (ATL/BUF/TB)

Just look at who these D/STs are playing. If you’d streamed against the majority of these offenses the entire season it would have earned you more Fantasy points than any one unit.

#BINGEWATCH

When I lived in the US, everyone enjoyed laughing at my accent, and mine isn’t very pronounced, so I can’t imagine how funny you’ll all find Euros in America. It’s absolute bottom-of-the-barrell entertainment, but damn fine bottom-of-the-barrell entertainment. Kudos to Bravo for its continued excellence in the trashy reality TV realm. This show debuted two weeks ago, so even if you don’t like it, it won’t take up too much time. But I see very little chance of it not becoming your favorite show. I watched it this week instead of Monday Night FootballEuros in Hollywood can hold my interest for more than ten minutes.

WEEK 11 Top 20 QBs (Most Updated QB RANKS)

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Peyton Manning
  3. Andrew Luck
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Tom Brady
  6. I’m Philip Rivers?
  7. Mark Sanchez
  8. Matt Ryan
  9. Ben Roethlisberger
  10. Russell Wilson
  11. WHOOAAAAA CAMMMMMM
  12. Gonzo Kaepernick
  13. Smokin’ Jay Cutler
  14. Matthew Stafford
  15. Derek Carr
  16. Teddy Throwsevelt
  17. NOT GREAT BOB Griffin III
  18. Josh McCown
  19. Andy “GINGERVITUS” Dalton
  20. Ryan Tannehill

EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX

  1. SEA/KC
  2. SF/NYG
  3. CIN/NO
  4. HOU/CLE
  5. ATL/CAR
  6. MIN/CHI
  7. TB/WAS
  8. DEN/STL

SUICIDE LAYUP

SD over OAK

WEEK 11 D/ST RANKS

  1. DEN
  2. DET
  3. HOU
  4. MIA
  5. WAS
  6. ARZ
  7. CLE
  8. BUF
  9. PIT
  10. SD

SUPERLOCK

NYG +4

THE REVENGE SOCIETY

Ben Tate vs HOU
Nate Washington vs PIT
Vincent Brown at SD
Shayne Graham vs CIN
Adam Vinatieri vs NE

QUICK READS

Don’t be afraid about Philip Rivers. Yes, he’s coming off a dreadful outing in Miami and his offensive line isn’t very good. No, you know what? That’s not even fair. It’s not that it’s “not very good,” it’s downright pathetic. Only the Panthers have a more brutal collection of scrubs protecting their QB. But, the Raiders are a magic elixir that cures all. Oakland’s not normally a defense to pick on, but Rivers shouldn’t have issues. Just like he didn’t in the Bay Area a month ago when he tossed 313 yards and three TDs. In fact, Rivers has three TD passes in half his games this year and multiple passing scores in all but two. The Raiders just don’t have the pass rush required to get Rivers off his spot, and if you can’t make him move, he’ll rip you to shreds. Don’t overthink this one, let Philip The Sailor Man navigate your Fantasy squad – Toot Toot!!!

Now, the Chargers offensive line is a giant issue, but, their pass defense, at least recently, has been equally as terrible. So, against my better judgment, I’m back on the Derek Carr train again. Over its last four games, San Diego has been gashed through the air, ceding 11 passing scores allowing an average of 22 Fantasy points to the opposing QB. Plus, the Chargers’ smallish DBs simply cannot handle the size of the towering Raiders receivers.

Still not buying Mike Evans as a fringe WR1? Give your head a shake, PALLLLLL!!! Evans has AT LEAST four catches in every game in his career and has found pay dirt in four of the past five. Plus, he has a 25-yard grab – or longer – in seven straight. And he gets to face Washington, please: 16-percent of all completions against the ’Skins have gone for more than 20 yards this year and they have 15 more TDs against than interceptions. Josh McCown may actually be able to hold onto the ball this week.

I’ll keep driving this point home: Stop looking at season totals for players. Football, especially, Fantasy football, is a what have you done for me lately deal. And, Alfred Morris has been doing a lot lately. More so when he’s at home. ALF has seen at least 18 touches in three straight after going three games with 15 or fewer, and since the beginning of last year, Morris is scoring once every 25 carries in Washington, compared to one score for 46 carries on the road. When you consider Tampa grades as the worst statistical run defense in the league, I like his chances for a HUGE day.

To reiterate, stop falling into the trap of looking at season long stats pertaining to defenses. If you did, you wouldn’t realize that the Bears stopped covering tight ends after Week 4. Too much effort, and as we know, effort’s highly overrated, and for try hards. And everyone hates try hards. Everyone. Chicago’s last five games? Nine TDs. Not overall, just to tight ends. That’s mental. So, I don’t care Kyle Rudolph hasn’t played in months, I’m picking him up and starting him. There’s no better upside gamble on the board. Now, it’s no guarantee Rudolph returns, but if he’s active, you’ll want to have him in. He’s selling for a song on DraftKings and Fanduel too. Even if he has to sit out one more week, just blindly playing Chase Ford in his place.

Antonio Brown and Golden Tate. Those are the only two receivers with more targets and catches over their last two games than Brandon LaFell. Any confusion about his week-to-week usage should be cleared up by now. I mean, he saw more targets than GRONK the last two games. That’s a direct result of the routes New England has him running. 72-percent of this receptions have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Usually, that’s bad, but with the Patriots, all it means is that LaFell has an elevated floor.

OK, maybe Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been as good as we hoped he’d be. However that changes against the Bears. Over its past four games, Chicago’s giving up over 26 Fantasy points against to QBs. If you had simply been able to play whoever was facing them every week, it’d be the equivalent of Andrew Luck, only slightly better. I don’t advocate bullying in real life, but in Fantasy Football, use Teddy to pound the competition.

8, 8,13, 9,17. Nope, those aren’t the numbers from LOST or hot lotto picks (which as you should know, are the same thing). No, they’re covertly the Fantasy points Cleveland’s defense has produced the last five weeks. And they’re doing it in the most predictable way possible. The Browns have recorded at least two sacks in their last six games and have 10 total picks over their past five, with one in every game. So, essentially, the Browns D/ST comes with a floor of six points and everything else is just a bonus from there. And you know who loves shelling out bonus points to Fantasy defenses? QBs making their first career start. Welcome to the league Ryan Mallet, I look forward to streaming against you the next few weeks.

Finally… the return of Ryan Mathews is upon us. How long will he last this time… the hell if I know? What I do know is, he’ll be in uniform (and healthy!) against Raiders, so you use him while you can. Don’t worry about Chargers offensive line either, because Mathews is going to generate his points through volume. Oakland’s the most run-on team in the league, seeing 34 attempts against per week. And despite its futility, San Diego’s committed to its ground game. They were handing the ball off almost 30 times on a weekly basis before two straight drubbings. Doubt that happens hosting the Raiders.

With Delanie Walker and Jordan Cameron unlikely to play, and some of the previously safe tight ends – cough, cough, Vernon Davis – seemingly losing the ability to catch the ball, grab a TE on the rise. That’s Austin Seferian-Jenkins. ASJ has a TD or 50 yards in three of his last four games and Washington’s allowed a tight end to breach the goal line in two straight. So the matchup’s proper. He’s not safe, but if you’re in a spot, he has a decent floor and possesses a more than a modicum of upside.

Many are going to look at Jordan Matthews’ ridiculous 7 catch, 138 yard, two touchdown outing Monday and be forced to change their pants. But, few realize Matthews only played 37 snaps against Carolina, his third lowest total of the season. However limited snaps aren’t a problem for Matthews with Sanchez under center. Because Sanchez hearts tossing it his direction, on 26-percent of aimed passes to be specific; didn’t realize they were such good buds. My Eagles inner circle sources really let me down on that one.

Remember when Antone Smith and Devonte Freeman were a thing? How about Jacquizz Rodgers? Well, they ain’t nothing. Somehow, Steven Jackson’s managed to fend them off, evolving into a pretty steady RB2 the past few weeks. Better yet, he now gets Carolina. Last season, Jackson averaged five yards per touch against the Panthers, and that’s when their defense was good. This season, Carolina ranks 29th in yards per carry and has given up over a touchdown a game to RBs the last four weeks

PPR WEEK 11 FLEX RANKS

NOTE: PPR scoring only truly affects outliers. PPR Ranks and Standard Ranks are similar with the exception extreme reception magnets like Pierre Thomas, Benny Cunningham & Darren Sproles (PPR Positive) and the stonehanded Alfred Morris, Frank Gore & Stevan Ridley (PPR Negative).

Week 11 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
Trade Value: Buy Low/Sell High | Josh Gordon | AP/Ball
Week 11: RB Starts | FAAB Bids | RB Adds | WR Adds | TE Adds

Pat Mayo Hour – Week 11 FLEX Ranks Debate w/ Jake Ciely

Subscribe on iTunes

SHUNNED!!!: Ray Rice
RESHUNNED???: Adrian Peterson
ProbableBrandon Marshall (Ankle), Jonathan Stewart (Leg), Eric Ebron (Hammy)
QuestionableCharles Sims (Ankle), Montee Ball (Knee), Dexter McCluster (Knee), Kyle Rudolph (Groin), Marshawn Lynch (Calf)
Doubtful [Not Ranked]: Donnie Avery (Hip), Ronnie Hillman (Foot), Peyton Hillis (Dizzies), Gio Bernard (Hip), Joseph Fauria (Ankle), Delanie Walker (Concussion), Jordan Cameron (Dizzies), Reggie Bush X (Ankle)
OutTyler Eifert (Arm), Luke Willson (Ankle), Arian Foster (Groin), Khiry Robinson (Forearm), Pierre Thomas (Rib),
Cut: Santonio Holmes, Austin Pettismile
Keep Stashing: Josh Gordon (Suspension)

  1. Antonio Brown
  2. Calvin Johnson
  3. Matt Forte
  4. Le’Veon Bell
  5. Jordy Nelson
  6. Julio Jones
  7. Demaryius Thomas
  8. Jimmy Graham
  9. #GRONKSMASH!!!!!
  10. Jamaal Charles
  11. Marshawn Lynch
  12. Eddie Lacy
  13. Alfred Morris
  14. Emmanuel Sanders
  15. Alshon Jeffery
  16. Randall Cobb
  17. A.J. Green
  18. Money Mike Evans
  19. Julius Thomas
  20. Kelvin BenJAMIN’
  21. Andre Ellington
  22. Oh, hai Mark Ingram (Special Guest Rank: Project Roto)
  23. Ahmad Bradshaw
  24. LeSean McCoy
  25. Shane Vereen
  26. Golden Tate III
  27. Greg Olsen
  28. T.Y. “Gene Mean” Hilton
  29. Brandon Marshall
  30. Jeremy Maclin
  31. DeAndre Hopkins
  32. Brandon LaFell Sexwell
  33. Vincent Jackson
  34. Roddy White
  35. Steven Jackson
  36. Jeremy Hill
  37. Alfred Blue
  38. Frank Gore
  39. Rashad Jennings
  40. Antonio Gates
  41. DeSean Jackson
  42. Keenan Allen
  43. Martavis Bryant
  44. The New ODB, Odell Beckham Jr.
  45. Anquan Boldin
  46. The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald
  47. Julian Edelman
  48. Jordan Matthews
  49. He went to Jerick McKinnon
  50. Bishop Cranky
  51. Tre Mason
  52. Ryan Mathews
  53. Theo Riddick
  54. Joique Bell
  55. Darren McFadden
  56. Dwayne Allen
  57. Martellus Bennett
  58. TRAVIS KELCE!!!!!!!
  59. Malcom Floyd
  60. Mohamed Sanu
  61. Brandin Weber Cooks
  62. Kyle Rudolph
  63. James Jones
  64. Dwayne Bowe
  65. Pierre Garçon
  66. Reggie Wayne
  67. Greg Jennings
  68. Mychal Rivera
  69. Zach Ertz
  70. Montee Ball
  71. C.J. Anderson
  72. Terrence West
  73. Jonas Gray
  74. Bobby November Rainey
  75. Ben Tate
  76. Charles Sims
  77. Jonathan Stewart
  78. Matt Asiata
  79. Darren Sproles
  80. Doug Baldwin
  81. Michael CRABPEOPLE!!!
  82. Andre Johnson
  83. John Brown
  84. Michael Floyd
  85. Marques Colston
  86. Rueben Randle
  87. Kendall Wright
  88. Andrew Hawkins
  89. Justin Hunter
  90. Cordarrelle Patterson
  91. Jordan Reed
  92. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
  93. Trent Richardson (Special Guest Rank: Project Roto)
  94. Carlos Hyde
  95. Branden Oliver
  96. DeAngelo Williams
  97. Benny Cunningham, and his wife, Oprah
  98. Roy Helu Jr.
  99. Travaris Cadet
  100. Eddie Royal
  101. Markus Cream of Wheaton: NOW WITH EXTRA GLUTEN!!!
  102. Kenny Britt
  103. Taylor “Sledgehammer” Gabriel
  104. Andre Holmes
  105. Kenny Stills to Pay the Billz
  106. The Walls of Jerricho Cotchery
  107. Jermaine Kearse
  108. Davante Adams
  109. Nasty Nate Washington 666
  110. Wesley Welker
  111. Stevie Johnson
  112. Donte Moncrief
  113. Miles Austin 316
  114. Greg Little
  115. Travis All About the Benjamins
  116. Isaiah Crowell
  117. Heath Miller
  118. HEY VERN Davis
  119. Coby Fleener
  120. Larry Donnell
  121. Chase Ford
  122. Andre Williams
  123. LeGarrette Blount
  124. Knile Davis
  125. Juwan Thompson
  126. Chris Polk
  127. Cedric Peerman
  128. Jarius Wright
  129. Andre Roberts
  130. Hakeem Nicks
  131. Brice Butler
  132. Harry Douglas
  133. Riley Cooper
  134. Lance Moore
  135. James Casey
  136. Ladarius Green
  137. Jermaine Gresham
  138. Niles Paul
  139. Tim Wright
  140. Garrett Graham
  141. Andrew Quarless
  142. Daniel Fells
  143. Cooper Helfet
  144. Stedman Bailey
  145. Devin Hester
  146. Preston Parker
  147. Devonte Freeman
  148. Antone Smith
  149. DeAnthony Thomas
  150. James Starks
  151. Leon Washington, The Professional
  152. Donald Brown
  153. Mike James
  154. Christine Michael
  155. Tavon Austin
  156. Country Music Sensation Griff Whalen
  157. Ryan Broyles
  158. Corey Fuller
  159. Jason Avant
  160. LOUIS MURPHY!!!!
  161. Kenbrell Thompkins
  162. Brian ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND IT’S TYMS FOR A CHANGE
  163. Danny Amendola
  164. Paul Richardson
  165. Vincent Brown
  166. Jaron Fake John Brown
  167. Anthony Fasano
  168. Levine Trololo
  169. Jim Dray
  170. Brandon Pettigrew
  171. Brandon Bostick
  172. Eric Ebron
  173. Chris Gragg
  174. Rhett Ellison
  175. Brandon Tate
  176. Corey Washington
  177. Marqise Lee
  178. Dane Sanzenbacher
  179. Brandon Lloyd
  180. Rishard Matthews
  181. Maurice Jones-Drew
  182. Latavius Murray
  183. Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
  184. Jonathan Grimes (Or, Grimey, as he likes to be called)
  185. Silas Redd
  186. Brandon Bolden
  187. Ronnie Brown
  188. Brent Celek
  189. Vance McDonald
  190. Josh Hill
  191. Brandon Myers
  192. John Carlson
  193. Ben Watson
  194. Daniel Herron
  195. John Khun
  196. Doug Martin
  197. Shonn Greene
  198. Dexter McCluster: Telling you not to LOL and Drive
  199. Ka’Deem Carey
  200. Robert Turbin
  201. Chris Givens
  202. Frankie Hammond
  203. Jarrett Boykin
  204. Ted Ginn Jr.
  205. Erik Lorig
  206. Marion Brice
  207. Stepfan Taylor
  208. Zac StacyFilm Credits: “Super Mario Bros.” as Goomba
  209. Kyle Juszczyk
  210. Jacquizz Rodgers
  211. Marcel Reece
  212. Chris Ogbonnaya
  213. Dri Archer #DANGERZONE
  214. Jackie Battle
  215. James White
  216. Darrel Young
  217. Jalen Parmele
  218. Ricardo Lockette
  219. Denarius Moore
  220. Brandon Gibson
  221. Cody Latimer
  222. Andre Caldwell
  223. Junior Hemingway

WORST PLACE!!!

  1. Oh, hai Mark Ingram
  2. Lamar THRILLER
  3. Second Worst RB of all time, Trent Richardson
  4. Jared Cook

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