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Could Andrew Cashner be one of Fantasy Baseball's starting pitcher busts?

Starting Pitcher Busts According to SIERA


BaseballFantasyMLB

The last time we chatted around the virtual water cooler, I shared with you the value of SIERA (Skills Interactive ERA)  and how it’s been more effective than several well known projection models in forecasting the future performance of pitchers. I also tipped you off on a bunch of pitchers that SIERA liked to rebound from down performances in 2014.

This time we’ll use SIERA to help us identify the starting pitcher busts of 2015. The table below displays starting pitchers who pitched over 100 innings and whose 2014 ERAs were 0.30 or more under their SIERA. In essence SIERA says these pitchers outperformed their true skill levels and may face tougher times in the coming year. Why the 0.30 level as a cut-off? There’s no real meaning to the number. It’s just about where I thought it really started to make a difference in the outlook for a pitcher. Obviously the larger the gap between ERA and SIERA, the more likely a pitcher is to regress.

Just like most any other statistic, SIERA doesn’t tell the complete story. We still need to look at each player in context and look at other peripheral stats to come to the most accurate conclusion possible. I’m not gonna do that for every pitcher on the list, but we will look a little deeper at some of the more Fantasy-relevant hurlers.

 

Potential Starting Pitcher Busts Based on SIERA

 

2014 Starting Pitcher Overachievers
Name
ERA
SIERA
Differential
Dillon Gee
4.00
4.30
-0.30
Jake Arrieta
2.53
2.83
-0.30
Wei-Yin Chen
3.54
3.85
-0.31
Clayton Kershaw
1.77
2.09
-0.32
Tom Koehler
3.81
4.16
-0.35
Felix Hernandez
2.14
2.50
-0.36
R.A. Dickey
3.71
4.08
-0.37
Matt Garza
3.64
4.02
-0.38
James Shields
3.21
3.59
-0.38
Jon Niese
3.40
3.78
-0.38
Tommy Milone
4.19
4.57
-0.38
Alex Wood
2.78
3.16
-0.38
Jake Peavy
3.73
4.11
-0.38
Alex Cobb
2.87
3.26
-0.39
Chris Sale
2.17
2.56
-0.39
Tyson Ross
2.81
3.21
-0.40
Collin McHugh
2.73
3.14
-0.41
Jason Vargas
3.71
4.14
-0.43
Rick Porcello
3.43
3.88
-0.45
Drew Smyly
3.24
3.69
-0.45
David Buchanan
3.75
4.21
-0.46
Chris Archer
3.33
3.80
-0.47
Sonny Gray
3.08
3.56
-0.48
Jordan Zimmermann
2.66
3.15
-0.49
Jacob deGrom
2.69
3.19
-0.50
Kyle Lohse
3.54
4.04
-0.50
Michael Wacha
3.20
3.74
-0.54
Kevin Gausman
3.57
4.11
-0.54
Roberto Hernandez
4.10
4.67
-0.57
Scott Feldman
3.74
4.33
-0.59
Jered Weaver
3.59
4.18
-0.59
Garrett Richards
2.61
3.20
-0.59
Aaron Harang
3.57
4.18
-0.61
Jon Lester
2.46
3.09
-0.63
Hector Santiago
3.75
4.38
-0.63
Yordano Ventura
3.20
3.87
-0.67
Nick Martinez
4.55
5.22
-0.67
Jarred Cosart
3.69
4.36
-0.67
Josh Collmenter
3.46
4.18
-0.72
Alfredo Simon
3.44
4.17
-0.73
Julio Teheran
2.89
3.68
-0.79
Josh Beckett
2.88
3.67
-0.79
Nick Tepesch
4.36
5.15
-0.79
Cole Hamels
2.46
3.29
-0.83
Vance Worley
2.85
3.68
-0.83
Mat Latos
3.25
4.08
-0.83
Shelby Miller
3.74
4.60
-0.86
Johnny Cueto
2.25
3.15
-0.90
Chris Tillman
3.34
4.26
-0.92
Mark Buehrle
3.39
4.32
-0.93
Henderson Alvarez
2.65
3.70
-1.05
Tanner Roark
2.85
3.93
-1.08
Lance Lynn
2.74
3.84
-1.10
Adam Wainwright
2.38
3.52
-1.14
Andrew Cashner
2.55
3.70
-1.15
Edinson Volquez
3.04
4.20
-1.16
Miguel Gonzalez
3.23
4.40
-1.17
Doug Fister
2.41
3.93
-1.52
Chris Young
3.65
5.24
-1.59
Danny Duffy
2.53
4.31
-1.78

Jake Arrieta, RHP, CHC: I’m not surprised SIERA indicates a regression is coming, but this is a regression we can live with. His 74.2 LOB% was a bit fortunate, but otherwise there’s nothing screaming fluke about Arrieta’s 2014 breakout.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD: Kershaw was a lucky bum and should be avoided (by you) in any of the drafts you happen to be drafting against me in.

Felix Hernandez, RHP, SEA: Be ready to settle for an ERA in the 2.50 neighborhood. Yeah, the demise of King Felix has begun.

R.A. Dickey, RHP, TOR: I’m seeing Dickey being recommended as a decent late-round pitcher. Uh, no. He’s an aging inconsistent knuckleballer in a hitter’s haven.

Matt Garza, RHP, MIL: It’s not that I think Garza is any great shakes, but he’s pretty much the same thing as Chris Tillman or the aforementioned Dickey, yet he’s going undrafted in 12-team mixed leagues.

James Shields, RHP, SDP: I’m gonna bet the new ballpark and the chance to face opposing pitchers makes up for that 0.38 SIERA differential.

Alex Wood, LHP, ATL: Another case of regression we can deal with. I’d be more concerned about the support the Atlanta offense won’t be giving him.

Jake Peavy, RHP, SF: In case the 7.02 K/9 and 13 losses didn’t alert you, SIERA is here to verify that Peavy is just an innings eater who’s just as likely to provide negative value as positive.

Alex Cobb, RHP, TB: This one hurts as Cobb is a personal favorite of mine. A full season will help negate some of the projected regression. Now about getting some runs out of that Tampa Bay offense.

Tyson Ross, RHP, SD: Ross is a Fantasy ace… in Petco. His numbers on the road (3.79 ERA) are a little less impressive. I’m still on board, but his 41.2% slider usage makes me think his window for success might be a short one.

Rick Porcello, RHP, BOS: Porcello is a fine big league pitcher. He’s just not a very good Fantasy pitcher. Add a 5.67 K/9 to his high 3.00’s ERA and you have the makings of negative value.

Drew Smyly, LHP, TB and Chris Archer, RHP, TB: Starting to think SIERA doesn’t know what Tampa Bay does for pitchers. Whether it’s the ballpark (24th in HR factor), the extreme defensive shifts (2nd most in 2014) or pitching coach Jim Hickey, pitchers tend to see success in Tampa Bay.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, BAL: Gausman is perplexing. He’s got electric stuff, but if you watch him in person he seems to nibble around the corners to an extreme. While there’s reason for concern, I think another year of experience and a bit of consistency in his usage will help smooth things out. Maybe the breakout isn’t coming, but I still see some positive value.

Jered Weaver, RHP, LAA: Eventually Weaver’s smoke and mirrors will stop working. I don’t want to be there when that happens. Stay away.

Jon Lester, LHP, CHC: Lester’s 2.46 ERA last season was far and away the best of his career. Some of the regression will be mitigated by the switch to the NL, but don’t be surprised if he’s not the elite pitcher he looked like in 2014. Very good, yes. Elite, probably not.

Yordano Ventura, RHP KC: Which way does this young right-hander go? You wish the strikeouts matched his electric stuff. It could happen, but don’t pay for more than what he did in 2014.

Mat Latos, RHP MIA: If you just look at ERA, it was the same old Latos. The 6.51 K/99 and 2.0 mph missing from his fastball tell a different story. Getting out of Great American Ballpark, will help buffer the damage, but Latos has a lot of proving to do for Fantasy owners.

Shelby Miller, RHP, ATL: A 2.92 ERA in the second half made his final numbers more palatable, but much of that may have been due to a .214 BABIP and 81.4 LOB%. The overall picture isn’t that of a former top prospect with ace potential. The velocity is unchanged, but Miller has major red flags in his peripherals and the Braves offense won’t help his cause either.

Johnny Cueto, RHP, CIN: I’m not surprised SIERA projects a step back toward his career levels. The big strikeout total was mostly a result of a career high 243.2 IP, but as long as he’s healthy Cueto offers value as long as you’re not paying for another 2014.

Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL: At times Chris Tillman looks like a No. 2 or 3 Fantasy starter. His innings eater tendancies can’t hide from SIERA though. Tillman fits well as your fifth or sixth best starter. Expecting more would be uncivilized.

Henderson Alvarez, RHP, MIA: I’m always amazed at how few Ks this guy gets with what looks like elite stuff. I do think that heavy sinker will defy SIERA a bit, but another 2.65 ERA is very unlikely.

Adam Wainbwright, RHP, STL: Arm woes, an abdominal muscle strain, and peripherals with big blinking red lights have me avoiding Wainwright in all leagues. There is no doubt he’s a warrior, but veteran craftiness is not a category. Unless he falls a long way, Wainwright carries as much risk as any pitcher in baseball and could be one of Fantasy Baseball’s biggest starting pitcher busts.

Andrew Cashner, RHP, SD: I’m not worried about SIERA with Cashner. Petco will help with that. I’m more worried about constant health issues. Why do you get the feeling a visit with Dr. Andrews could happen at any time?

Doug Fister, RHP, WAS: The move to the NL resulted in a 5.38 K/9? Can Fister count on another 83.1 LOB%? How about another .262 BABIP Allowed? I respect his ability to pitch without any great weapons. The problem is there’s nowhere to go but down.

Danny Duffy. LHP, KC: Is Duffy the hotshot lefty who put up a 2.53 ERA in 2014, or is he closer to the 4.31 SIERA? I’m not paying to find out. Low level strikeouts plus a BB rate over 3.19 don’t typically add up to Fantasy value and it won’t in 2015.



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