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2014 MLB Draft

FANTASY BASEBALL – Watching MLB Draft and June 7-10 Pitcher Stream Rankings


BaseballMLB

*Garion Thorne was not asked or even advised to watch the MLB Draft. He did it of his own free will. This was probably a mistake*

6:00pm – The Astros draft room looks like it’s the utility hall of a Marriott Hotel. Welcome to the event that is the MLB Draft.

6:05pm – Harold Reynolds thinks that Tyler Kolek could hit 105mph on the gun at some point. I’m now realizing I have several more hours of Harold Reynolds in my life.

6:11pmJacob Gatewood. Serious bowtie game.

6:16pm – Apparently only seven prospects are currently here. Unsure if this is due to budget, amount of space in the MLB Network studio, or relative disinterest for the MLB Draft from even the people getting drafted.

6:26pm – Top prospect Brady Aiken compared to Randy Wolf. Read that one more time. Yeah.

6:27pm – Really liking Touki Toussaint. Have no idea what he throws, but his name is fantastic and he quit playing soccer to pitch. Sounds like a smart man.

6:33pmNick Gordon has a broken iPhone screen. He would have been told to leave Radio City Music Hall.

6:36pm – Obligatory piece about a prospect growing up on a farm.

6:53pm – This draft could really use a little Deion Sanders.

7:00pm – They couldn’t get anyone better than Adam Jones to narrate this opening? He takes walks with more passion.

7:05pm – No team has yet to make a pick. I’m beginning to question my love of baseball.

7:06pm – Bud Selig takes the stage to a polite round of applause. This is not how drafts work, though I doubt that Selig would embrace the heel role as well as David Stern.

7:13pm – Brady Aiken is selected first overall by the Houston Astros. He was not at the draft. Nor was Will Ferrell to accept on his behalf.

7:18pm – Tyler Kolek selected second overall by the Miami Marlins. He’s a high school pitcher. He’ll still somehow be pitching in Marlins Park by June of 2015.

7:23pm – White Sox take Carlos Rodon. He’s also missing from the festivities. Bud looks lonely, guys.

7:25pm – In terms of keeper leagues and, maybe more importantly, dynasty leagues, Rodon is the most relevant of the top three picks. A junior from North Carolina State, the lefty might have a quicker path than normal to the majors and is already drawing David Price comparisons in that sense.

7:33pmKyle Schwarber is taken by the Cubs fourth overall, somewhat surprising with Alex Jackson still on the board. Less surprising – Schwarber’s favourite movie is Anchorman. He fits the profile.

7:38pm – Gordon is selected fifth overall by the Minnesota Twins. Bud finally gets to give a handshake. Gordon presumably now has money to repair his previously mentioned phone or even buy a new and better phone. The possibilities are endless.

7:41pm – Harold Reynolds just referred to Dee Gordon as an All-Star. …With a straight face.

7:45pm – The Seattle Mariners take Jackson at six. Introduced as an outfielder by Selig, not a catcher. Much like Wil Myers and Bryce Harper this seems like a case of a prospect’s bat forcing him from behind the plate.

7:51pmAaron Nola a RHP from LSU goes seventh to the Phillies. Another college pitcher, the two-time reigning SEC Pitcher of the Year, that could be in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Nola getting Mike Leake comparisons with a nearly seven to one strikeout to walk ratio in his sophomore season. Expected Stream Column Arrival Time: 2015.

7:55pm – Jon Hart’s pronunciation of “athletic” is killing me.

7:56pmKyle Freeland, who grew up in Colorado, gets drafted eighth by the Rockies. Appears to be very excited. Apparently has forgotten that the Colorado Rockies do in fact play their games in Colorado. Another college arm that might reach the majors quickly.

8:02pmHandsome Monica and Blaze Tart have yet to be drafted or even mentioned. This is a travesty.

8:04pmJeff Hoffman taken ninth overall by the Blue Jays. He’s currently sidelined after recently undergoing Tommy John surgery, so he’ll make quick friends with Kyle Drabek when they’re both in AA New Hampshire in 2016.

8:09pm – The Mets select Michael Conforto with the tenth pick overall. He joins Schwarber as college positional players that could have value in dynasty leagues within a year or two.

8:11pm – I’m tapping out. For you true diehards, enjoy. There are only 39 or so rounds to go and they are all televised. Lucky us.

STREAM RANKINGS: SATURDAY, JUNE 7TH

  1. Roenis Elias (18%) @TB
  2. Bartolo Colon (29%) @SF
  3. David Phelps (4%) @KC
  4. Blake Treinen (1%) @SD
  5. Charlie Morton (8%) vs. MIL
  6. Randy Wolf (1%) @CHC
  7. Danny Duffy (10%) vs. NYY
  8. Kevin Gausman (4%) vs. OAK
  9. Nick Tepesch (3%) vs. CLE
  10. Scott Feldman (13%) @MIN

Coming off the best start of his young career last Sunday, it’s not really all that surprising that Roenis Elias tops my Saturday rankings, not that the rookie has been praised for his consistency this season. While he technically hasn’t had a terrible outing yet in 2014, Elias has allowed just five earned runs in a start just once, sporadic control has plagued him. However there appears to be an underlying pattern in all of the lefty’s pitfalls this season, one that is often attributed to young arms with the raw stuff that Elias possess – teams who are seeing the Mariner for the first time tend to struggle. Over his 12 starts this year Elias has doubled-up on three teams: the Rangers, the Athletics, and the Angels. In the nine outings where Elias is facing a new team he has a fantastic 2.91 ERA. In the 18.1 innings the second time around against those aforementioned opponents, his ERA balloons to 5.40. Luckily for Elias, and for any owners, this will be the first time that the rookie will square off with the Rays in his brief career. Tampa Bay is hitting slightly better with the return of Ben Zobrist to the lineup, he has two home runs in his last two games, but trust in Elias. He should have a decent outing at Tropicana and, if nothing else, the 7.91 strikeouts per nine aren’t bad to lean on.

There are a lot of similarities between Elias and Danny Duffy. Both are young, hard-throwing left-handed pitchers coming off their best starts of the season. Duffy also happens to be a little difficult to predict. Since moving from the Royals’ bullpen to the starting rotation in May, Duffy has made six starts. In four of those six he’s held opponents to a single earned run or less, including his outing Monday against St. Louis where he surrendered just two base runners over six scoreless innings. In the other two he’s allowed 10 earned runs over 10 innings. The problem for Duffy has been adjusting to working deeper into games. With an average fastball velocity of 93.8 mph, which would be good enough for 11th highest in baseball had he the innings to qualify, Duffy has strikeout stuff, but his K/9 has fallen from an elite 11.88 when pitching in relief to a miniscule 4.90 as a starter. That’s a horrific drop. Still, as surprising as it may be to the casual observer, the Yankees can’t hit anything right now. Their .090 ISO the past two weeks is easily the lowest in all of baseball, while their .278 wOBA is also dead last in the AL. They can’t hit for power, they can’t hit for average, they can’t even reach base. Take advantage with Duffy.

STREAM RANKINGS: SUNDAY, JUNE 8TH

  1. Collin McHugh (39%) @MIN
  2. Jose Quintana (37%) @LAA
  3. Henderson Alvarez (21%) @CHC
  4. Drew Hutchison (31%) vs. STL
  5. Jake Arrieta (3%) vs. MIA
  6. Chase Anderson (2%) vs. ATL
  7. Samuel Deduno (1%) vs. HOU
  8. Jorge De La Rosa (35%) vs. LAD
  9. Jaime Garcia (19%) @TOR
  10. Ubaldo Jimenez (38%) vs. OAK

A lot has been made of Henderson Alvarez’s home and road splits, but I feel like most people are misconstruing the message. While a 1.47 ERA at Marlins Park means Alvarez is essentially a must start when taking the hill in Miami, a 4.13 ERA on the road doesn’t suddenly make the righty untouchable. The truth of the matter is, aside from two poor starts in San Diego and San Francisco, Alvarez has been pretty good away from home – and lately he’s just been good in general. The former Blue Jay hasn’t surrendered a run in his past 21 innings, a big part of that trend being he also hasn’t allowed a free pass in 16.1 frames. Alvarez has always been able to stay out of trouble by keeping the ball on the ground, his 2014 rate of 54.3% is seventh highest in the National League, but the company he’s currently keeping is a little mindboggling. Since the All-Star break last season, Alvarez ranks first in baseball with nine starts where he hasn’t allowed a single earned run. This is more than both Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright, both universally owned, who each have eight. Is Alvarez in this class? No. But he definitely shouldn’t be available in 79% of leagues. Pick him up before someone else lucks into him.

With four wins in his first four major league starts Chase Anderson is an interesting player. I incorrectly assumed that after modest success in his first three outings that Anderson would get hit around at Coors Field, but the rookie produced his best start of the season going six innings and giving up just a single earned run. Now Anderson is back in Arizona where, while the long ball has plagued him, a 17.4% HR/FB ratio screams regression and he’s taking on an Atlanta team that has proven time and time again this year that they just can’t hit right-handed pitching. The Braves are 26th in baseball with a .229 team average against righties, while they rank 27th with a disappointing .119 ISO. They also love to strikeout, currently sitting with the third highest K% in baseball at 23.2%, making this the perfect opportunity to see if the elite strikeout totals that Anderson was producing in the minors can translate. He managed to sit down 8.38 batters per nine across 231 innings at AA and AAA combined, but is just at 5.82 so far this season in the majors. If Anderson can continue to develop his change-up, which not only produces his best whiff rate at 18.3%, but his lowest opponent batting average of any pitch at an impressive .100, he should thrive. Give him a look against Atlanta on Sunday.

STREAM RANKINGS: MONDAY, JUNE 9TH

  1. Jason Vargas (29%) vs. NYY
  2. Jarred Cosart (4%) @ARI
  3. Ryan Vogelsong (31%) vs. WSH
  4. Vidal Nuno (1%) @KC
  5. Erasmo Ramirez (1%) @TB
  6. Edwin Jackson (4%) @PIT
  7. Nick Martinez (1%) vs. CLE
  8. Bud Norris (3%) vs. BOS
  9. T.J. House (0%) @TEX
  10. Gavin Floyd (8%) @COL

It’s been a season of peaks and valleys for Jason Vargas in 2014. After a phenomenal April that saw him pitch to a 2.40 ERA over 45.2 innings, the veteran regressed in May – only to pick it up again recently. In his past three starts Vargas has given up just four earned runs, striking out 16 batters over that span. Strangely, and maybe more shockingly, that’s been an actual strength of the lefty’s game as of late. Over his last six starts, which in five he’s surrendered just two runs or fewer, Vargas has set down 8.38 opposing hitters per nine, far greater than his 5.93 career average. This is a total that seems primed for regression, but it might not be as steep as it appears on the surface. Yes, Vargas’ swinging strike rate of 9% is the highest it’s been since his rookie campaign, but it’s only a 0.4% jump from 2013 and is well within range of his career 8.1% mark. Vargas is the clear number one option on a light day against a currently light Yankee offense. Add him to your roster.

When dumpster diving for stream options on the lower half of the rankings a general rule of thumb is to look for pitchers who can definitely contribute to one category – and usually that takes the form of strikeouts. Edwin Jackson can do that. He’s averaging 8.52 strikeouts per nine through 12 starts in 2014, but that’s really his only source of value. Aside from the nagging control issues, Jackson’s 9.7% walk rate is seventh highest in the National League, the veteran’s usually pristine HR/9 is also on the rise. After not allowing a long ball for the first 29.2 innings he pitched this season, Jackson is allowing 1.15 per nine frames since that streak ended. Sadly, the righty’s problems don’t end there. While his .337 BABIP and 66.7% strand rate seem to indicate that Jackson’s fortune should turn at some point in 2014, his career numbers suggest that this “unluckiness” is more of a trend than an anomaly. Plus, Jackson’s ERA is nearly twice as high on the road at 6.12. If the Cub was going on a Sunday and you had a better sense of your ratio categories, Jackson might be worth a try, but to begin the week? Steer clear.

STREAM RANKINGS: TUESDAY, JUNE 10TH

  1. Travis Wood (34%) @PIT
  2. Drew Pomeranz (49%) @LAA
  3. Colby Lewis (2%) vs. MIA
  4. Mike Leake (44%) vs. LAD
  5. Tyler Skaggs (19%) vs. OAK
  6. Bronson Arroyo (16%) vs. HOU
  7. John Danks (3%) vs. DET
  8. J.A. Happ (3%) vs. MIN
  9. Juan Nicasio (4%) vs. ATL
  10. Brad Peacock (1%) @ARI

Drew Pomeranz went seven innings! Yell it from the rooftops. The one thing that had been holding Pomeranz back from being a truly valuable pitcher had been the lack of start length, as it diminished the impact of his nearly elite 8.40 K/9 – this might no longer be an issue. The former University of Mississippi standout surrendered just a single earned run while facing 27 batters on Thursday, the fifth time in his now six starts that he’s held the opposition below two runs. Really, aside from the arm strength, Pomeranz has made a relatively smooth transition from the bullpen. The 31 strikeouts he’s recorded in the 31.1 innings since making the move are actually a better ratio than he was putting up as a reliever and he’s stabilized his control as well. Pomeranz had been allowing 3.95 free passes per nine coming out of the pen, but he’s lowered that number by half a walk as a starter, helping to shore up his WHIP – currently at 1.16. The 91.7% strand rate will regress in the near future, but that should be counteracted by the normalization of Pomeranz’s inflated 14.6% HR/FB ratio, leaving very little to worry about, especially with the former Rockie making half his starts in spacious Oakland. Pomeranz’s ownership is sitting just below 50% and with one more decent start he’ll be gone in a majority of leagues. Pick him up now. Who knows? Maybe the Mike Trout will be on the DL by then.



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