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FANTASY BASEBALL – Is Melvin Upton Jr. Worth an Add?


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I did something last week. Something I wasn’t very proud of. I’m in a 20-man dynasty baseball league. 25 player rosters with a 15 slot minor league system – it’s legit. In this league, there is no such thing as streaming. If a player you put up for auction clears the 24-hour time window, he’s not just added to your roster, he’s now signed to your team for, at the very least, two seasons. It was under these restraints that I found myself searching. Charlie Blackmon, my prized free agent, had just been placed on the disabled list and Hector Olivera was suspended indefinitely. Hell, Alex Rios, on the final year of his fictional deal, didn’t, and still doesn’t, have a real life contract of which to speak. I was in tough, but I needed someone to fill out my roster. Someone who played everyday, yet had been universally ignored. I needed a player who had such a stigma attached to his name that no other owner in my league would even consider him, so, I picked a player with two said names: Melvin Upton Jr.

Now, this wasn’t a decision I came to lightly, but, apparently, its also not one I’m making alone. Across the past seven days, the outfielder formerly known as B.J. has seen his ownership increase over 17% on ESPN and, in the last 40 hours alone, he’s been added in excess of 8,000 times in Yahoo! leagues. The weirdest part? I kind of get it. I mean, sure, on the surface you could just chalk it all up to a good start with a small sample. The career .245 hitter is managing a .288 mark over a 60 plate appearance sample? Big deal. His two home runs are the product of an unsustainable 22.2% HR/FB ratio; a 28.2% line drive rate seems shaky; and his .192 ISO would be the highest of his career if not for a 28 home run season back in 2012. However, to start seeing past the recent failure, the wasted money, all the jokes on Twitter, you have to first accept one thing: we’re dealing with a different version of Melvin Upton, which should be pretty easy to accept, because we most definitely are.

Even putting aside the fact that Upton actually wasn’t the worst over his 228 plate appearances with the Padres last season, he posted a .344 wOBA after the All-Star break in 2015, Upton clearly has come into this campaign with a new plan at the plate. A career 26.4% strikeout rate has always anchored the now 31 year-old Upton, yet that number has fallen to a far more respectable 20% so far in 2016 with his contract rate rising to a level not seen since 2011. This is crucial. Because the key to Melvin Upton 2.0 (3.0 if you count his switch from second base to outfield, I guess) is BABIP. Entering play Friday, Upton has maintained a .342 average on balls in play, a number that would have tied him for 22nd highest among qualified players last season with Austin Jackson. Now, that figure might seem due for regression considering that, from 2012 to 2014, Upton managed only a pedestrian .284 BABIP, but, again, he’s changed his approach. Think ground balls. In fact, think Dee Gordon.

What turned around Dee Gordon’s career? He stopped hitting the ball in the air. That 22.2% HR/FB ratio I mentioned earlier for Upton this season? Sure, it’s not ideal for his power potential, but it’s incredible positive because the raw numbers read 2 of 9. That’s it. Just nine fly balls so far in 2016. Through 16 games Upton’s ground ball to fly ball ratio stands at 2.11. For a player of his profile, there could be no better news – especially with his career rate sitting at 1.18. Consider that in 2015, among the 18 players that managed a 2.00+ GB/FB ratio, 15 sustained a BABIP above .300. Plus, Jean Segura just missed the cut (.298) and Wilson Ramos, a catcher, doesn’t exactly fit the archetype I’m selling here. To extend that further, among the Top 30 players in GB/FB rate, only one of the extra 12, Starlin Castro, didn’t reach .300. Actually, among that 30 player sect, 19 had a BABIP higher than .330 and most did it with nothing close to the 40% hard contact rate Upton currently possesses. Instead they did it with speed. The average stolen base total among the Top 10 was 23.6 which, sure, is inflated by the aforementioned, but is also submarined by Joe Mauer. Upton stole 20 bases just two seasons ago. He had nine in essentially a third of a season last year. That’s right. Melvin Upton Jr. has the potential to impact not one, but two categories.

Still, once more, we are very, very early into the year. Players go through spurts. Players go through droughts. Yet, I’m always one to look for distinct change in approach. Matt Carpenter has 25 home run power all of a sudden? Well, he’s now swinging from his heels. Equal and opposite reaction. I’m not suggesting that Melvin Upton needs to be added in a 12-man league, I’m merely saying to dismiss his hot start as nothing more than a small sample size anomaly is a mistake. Only 25 players stole 20 bases in 2015. Just 16 did so while hitting at least .280. There’s a need for this type of player in fantasy baseball. Now, someone just needs to take a chance on a formerly blacklisted name.



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