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New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays

FANTASY BASEBALL – AL East Fantasy Division Preview


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Thorne’s 2016 MLB Fantasy Preview

2016 Positional Ranks: 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | C | OF | SP | RP   Misc: Aroldis Chapman Trade Value
Divisional Break-Downs: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West
Podcasts: ’16 Strategy w/ Fred Zinkie
Team Previews: Blue Jays | Orioles | Yankees | Red Sox | Rays | Mets | Nationals | Phillies | Braves | Marlins | Twins | Indians | Royals | White Sox | Tigers | Brewers | Reds | Cubs | Pirates | Cardinals

AL East Most Overrated: Russell Martin, TOR

Its important to note, especially when talking catchers, that I’m not saying Russell Martin will be a “bust”, I’m saying he’ll be “overrated”. Its hard for a guy to garner no value at a position that thins faster than any other. I mean, just look at the projected Top 10 class. By NFBC ADP only three backstops are currently sitting inside the Top 100: Buster Posey (21), Kyle Schwarber (31), and Sal Perez (99) – note the disparity even amongst that tier. Devin Mesoraco has roughly 400 quality plate appearances to his name. J.T. Realmuto, a sophomore, is a bonafide, undisputed starting catcher in standard leagues. In short, catcher is a mess, but that shouldn’t result in a free pass to Martin. The Jay is entering his age 33 season, coming off what most would argue was a career-year, though most careers haven’t quite followed the peaks and valleys of the former Dodger All-Star, and yet there are red flags. Since the beginning of 2010, Martin, among the 30 catchers who have complied 1,500 PAs, sits 24th with a underwhelming .241 average, besting the esteemed likes of J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. This trend continued in 2015, specifically in the season’s second half – generally when you would expect an aging catcher to begin to show signs of wear. Martin hit just .224 in 50 games, relying on an inflated 25.6% HR/FB ratio to sustain his value in August and September. That’s the other thing. How much can you attribute a career-best .218 ISO to a new home park in Toronto? I expect the power to nosedive in 2016, and, even surrounded by likely baseball’s highest scoring offence, I also expect the RBI total to suffer when a 74 point differential between Martin’s average with runners on base compared to his figure with the bases empty dissipates. Russell Martin will be drafted as a starting catcher. He has to be. But I’d wait a few rounds and select from the end of his catcher tier.

AL East Most Underrated: Michael Pineda, NYY

Pineda should really look into selling his 2015 campaign as a case study for those who want to learn the difference between ERA, FIP, and xFIP. The former Mariner had a 4.37 ERA over 160.2 innings. Not great. We still, after all, live in a standard 5×5 world. However, that number begins to look a little strange when you consider Pineda’s 7.43 K/BB ratio would have only trailed Max Scherzer had he the innings to qualify. That’s where the 3.34 FIP comes into play and with it Pineda’s .332 opponent BABIP and 68.6% strand rate, which, again, dependant on innings, would have been one of the ten lowest figures in all of baseball last season. Finally, we move to xFIP, a 2.95 number that takes into account Pineda’s incredibly high HR/FB ratio of 14.7%. Now, even though the Yankees as a team lead the league in HR/FB (13.6%) and have placed Top 10 as an organization each of the past five seasons, it’s not insane to think this number might drop in 2016. Basically, with even a little luck next year, Pineda will make a lot of noise – more than enough to return value on a pedestrian 169 NFBC ADP.

AL East Situation to Watch: Boston’s Catcher Conundrum

Defence is not generally something that factors into fantasy relevance, but when it comes to Boston’s stable of backstops, at least this season, it might be of some importance. Now, there’s no denying that Blake Swihart is a top-end prospect – a 23 year-old, switch-hitting catcher will always turn heads, however, for a player with his current NFBC ADP of 199 (he’s in a tight fight with Yasmani Grandal for C12) I think there’s too many questions surrounding his path to definite 2016 plate appearances. Remember that the only reason Swihart was with the Red Sox last season was a bevy of injuries with both Ryan Hanigan and Christian Vazquez missing significant time. It’s the latter name that’s the most important. Dave Dombrowski has already stated Vazquez will be physically ready for Spring Training and, even if he does start the year in the minors, he’ll be with Boston sooner rather than later. So, while Swihart is likely the better offensive option of the two, his unsustainable .359 BABIP and near 25% strikeout rate aside, on a team Clay Davenport projects to be third in the MLB in runs, is offensive punch behind the plate all that necessary? Fielding Bible had Swihart as a -9 in defensive runs saved in 2015. They had Vazquez saving 6 in a little over 450 innings in 2014. That’s a clear advantage. Still, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe pointed out to me, internally, the Red Sox were pleased with the defensive growth Swihart showed over the course of last season. Its an odd situation to project, but I’d air on the side of caution with Swihart.

AL East Top Prospect: Blake Snell, TB

There are certain archetypes in baseball that begin to take on a life of their own in a narrative sense, but honestly, I’ll keep coming back to the Tampa Bay pitching prospect well till it decides to run dry. David Price, Chris Archer, even the displaced (and technically miscast when with the Rays) Wade Davis are all testaments to the greatness that is Tampa’s minor league system and Blake Snell is widely believed to be the next prodigy. Across three levels last season, finishing the year with 44.1 innings in Triple-A, the lanky left-hander pitched to a 1.41 ERA with 163 strikeouts in 134 frames overall. Toss in an All-Star Futures Games appearance, MLB.com’s #14 prospect rank (he ranks as the #2 LHP ahead of Steven Matz), and a 46 inning scoreless streak and you have quite the touted commodity. Yes, the ever frugal Rays will not be adding Snell to the 25 man roster before the Super Two deadline, but with last season’s pleasant surprise Erasmo Ramirez and the potentially bullpen-bound Matt Moore currently filling out Tampa’s rotation, you’d have to think Snell is featured at some point even with Alex Cobb‘s return looming. As PECOTA will tell you, the Rays are in it this year, they’ll need their best talent.

AL East Break-Out Potential: Jonathan Schoop, BAL

Its not as if Jonathan Schoop doesn’t have obvious skill – a home run every 25.9 plate appearances is impressive even without context for a back-end middle infielder with a 239 NFBC ADP, but consider even Kris Bryant only mustered a single shot every 25 PAs. The issue is that this plus power comes with inherent risk. Schoop’s immense power is intertwined with the lowest BB/K ratio (0.11) of any player with at least 800 plate appearances since the beginning of 2014. However, a little well-roundedness might be around the corner. Schoop’s average shot up 70 points last season, the direct result of more and, honestly, sustainable amounts of hard contact and line drives – the former rising from 26% to 34.5% in 2015. Plus, for those who still believe Joey Votto caps his own fantasy potential with patience (he doesn’t, don’t think like this), Schoop very rarely gets cheated. His 61.4% swing rate last year trailed only Marlon Byrd among players with 300 PAs. He’s far from the perfect fantasy prototype, but Schoop’s high-ceiling skill set and low risk ADP make him an ideal candidate to become Top 10 positionally.



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