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FANTASY BASEBALL – 2015 3B Rankings + September 3-5 SP Streams


BaseballMLB

THORNE’S 2015 MLB POSITIONAL RANKINGS: 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | C | OF | SP | RP

2015 BIG NAME BUY-LOWS | THORNE AND SOPPE: CI | MI | OF | SP

THORNE’S 2015 3B RANKINGS

  1. Josh Donaldson (OAK) Later Miggy. See ya Edwin. We are now left with Donaldson as top of the position. Ouch. Still, a 14% line drive rate, lowest of qualified batters in baseball, should normalize in 2015. He’ll never be a .300 hitter again, but .275 is possible.
  2. Adrian Beltre (TEX)
  3. Anthony Rendon (WSH)
  4. Todd Frazier (CIN)
  5. Evan Longoria (TB)Longoria still has the potential to be the best third has to offer and with some normalization in 2015 he very well might be. A .141 ISO wasn’t just a career-low, but the only time he’s sat below .200 for a season – due in most part to an also career-worst 10.1% HR/FB ratio.
  6. Nolan Arenado (COL)Again, to be successful at Coors, you just have to put the ball in play. Arenado, in the mold of Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau, does just that. A minuscule 12.2% strikeout rate is among the league’s best and a 7% increase in fly ball rate between this season and last will only help in the altitude.
  7. Kyle Seager (SEA)
  8. Ryan Zimmerman (WSH)
  9. Pedro Alvarez (PIT)2014 was a weird year for the Pirate. His walk rate went above 10% for the first time. His strikeout rate dropped 5%. Must have been a great year, right? Not so much. Alvarez was affected by a 15.8% line drive rate and a near 10% drop from his 2013 HR/FB ratio. He’s a huge sleeper in 2015.
  10. Kris Bryant (CHC)It’s always a risk when taking someone who will be the most hyped rookie coming into 2015 – honestly he’ll go too high in most drafts. Still, across two minor league stops, Bryant hit 43 home runs and maintained a walk rate above 14%. Very, very enticing.
  11. Brett “Mike” Lawrie (TOR)
  12. David Wright (NYM)There few few players I disliked more coming into 2014 than Wright, but he’s not THIS bad. With a 5.5% HR/FB ratio (not even half of his career rate) the Met saw his ISO drop 108 points to sit at .099 – that’s disgusting. However, it’s a weak year at third and he’ll regress to the mean in 2015.
  13. Aramis Ramirez (MIL)He’ll turn 37 during next season, but a .360 average and .314 ISO versus left-handed pitching are astounding. There’s still some left in the tank.
  14. Pablo Sandoval (SF)
  15. Manny Machado (BAL)Apparently Machado will be ready for spring, but let’s not get too excited. Honestly, how good is Manny? Defense means nothing in fantasy, he doesn’t steal, he doesn’t walk, and a power surge in 2014 was dependent on a 15% HR/FB ratio. Not a fan.
  16. Josh Harrison (PIT)
  17. Matt Carpenter (STL)
  18. Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE)
  19. Martin Prado (NYY)
  20. Nick Castellanos (DET)Care to wager a guess as to the American League’s line drive percentage leader? At 27.9% – it’s Castellanos. This title equates to a .262 average. Part of that is strikeout rate. Part of that is pure sadness.
  21. Alex Rodriguez (NYY)You’re guess is as good as mine. Since 2011 A-Rod has put up ISOs of .185, .158, and .179 – terrible in the context of his own career, but decent for current third baseman. This strikeout rate has jumped each of his past two seasons, but this is still probably a conservative rank.
  22. Trevor Plouffe (MIN)
  23. Matt Dominguez (HOU)A .124 ISO is too low for a player with Dominguez’s pop, plus a .256 BABIP should normalize in 2015 considering this is one Astro who isn’t an extreme fly ball hitter. In fact Dominguez had a 44.9% groundball rate and hit just .220 on grounders. That won’t continue.
  24. Chase Headley (NYY)
  25. Casey McGehee-zak (MIA)
  26. Mike Moustakas (KC)
  27. Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
  28. Chris Johnson (ATL)
  29. Juan Francisco (TOR) A platoon player with plus power. Francisco hit to a .271 ISO and .357 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014.
  30. David Freese (LAA)

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 3RD

  1. Jacob deGrom (46%) @MIA
  2. Marcus Stroman (31%) @TB
  3. Jason Vargas (37%) vs. TEX
  4. Collin McHugh (42%) vs. LAA
  5. Edinson Volquez (23%) @STL
  6. Danny Salazar (45%) vs. DET
  7. Miguel Gonzalez (7%) vs. CIN
  8. Tom Koehler (17%) vs. NYM
  9. John Danks (4%) @MIN
  10. Kyle Hendricks (42%) vs. MIL

There have been two trends extremely apparent since the beginning of the season that I’ve milked for success without hesitation – both are in play with Tom Koehler on Wednesday. First, it’s always good to have a pitcher going against a National League East club. They will strike batters out. Second, it’s always better to stream Marlins’ pitchers when their taking the mound in Miami. It was true for Jose Fernandez, it remains true with Henderson Alvarez, and it’s been consistent with Koehler all year long. The righty has an astounding 2.69 ERA when pitching at Marlins Park, a full two runs lower than his ERA on the road – a big factor being ball park size. Miami plays in one of baseball’s largest stadiums and that’s apparent when breaking down Koehler’s splits. He’s surrendered just four of his 14 home runs at home in 2014 where his opponent HR/9 is a microscopic 0.46, this compared to a slightly elevated 1.07 HR/9 mark away from the Sunshine State. Now, Koehler isn’t even really a fly ball pitcher, nor does he surrender that many home runs, but Marlins Park makes him that much better. The contrast between home and road is even more stark when just focusing on Koehler’s match-ups with the Mets this season. He’s pitched to a 1.20 ERA across 15 innings in Miami against New York this season, that number jumps to 5.56 during the two outings in the Big Apple. Regardless of how you feel about splits, Koehler’s just been flat out decent over his past eight starts. The Marlin has a 3.33 ERA over that stretch with the refinement of his slider playing a key role. Opponents have hit only .175 overall off the pitch this season, with lefties managing just an unremarkable .120 – a deciding factor in Koehler’s reverse righty/lefty splits. With arguable the Mets two best hitters (Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy) left-handed, and the latter hurt, this outing would seem to play right into Koehler’s hands. Pun intended.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4TH

  1. Jake Odorizzi (41%) vs. TOR
  2. Trevor Bauer (14%) vs. DET
  3. Roenis Elias (9%) @TEX
  4. Vidal Nuno (3%) @SD
  5. Mike Leake (45%) @BAL
  6. Chris Capuano (3%) vs. BOS
  7. Allen Webster (1%) @NYY
  8. Kyle Gibson (9%) vs. LAA
  9. Justin Masterson (37%) @MIL
  10. Miles Mikolas (0%) vs. SEA

There’s a magical place in the world of streams where even the worst of pitchers become seemingly attractive. This place is Petco Park – the beer goggles of baseball stadiums. So imagine it’s 2am (11pm on the West Coast) and pick up Vidal Nuno this week. Surprisingly, Nuno’s been very effective since being traded from the Yankees to the Diamondbacks for Brandon McCarthy in July, but specifically so in his past four starts. Over that frame the lefty has pitched to a 2.25 ERA upping the strikeout totals to a slightly above average 7.71 per nine and only allowing four free passes – and yet Nuno is still the victim of lady luck. Take his last outing against these very Padres for example. The second game of what is currently a three game stretch of starts going at least seven innings, Nuno took the mound in the 8th with a 2-0 lead, then cluster theory took hold. The Arizona hurler would only actually surrender five base runners the entire game – three would be in that 8th where reliever Oliver Perez, not Nuno, would allow the game-tying single barring the southpaw from his first victory since June 27th (he was a Yankee). Still, the point is, for what he is capable of controlling, Nuno has been on a fantastic run as of late and San Diego plays to all of his weaknesses. The former Indians prospect sits second in baseball surrendering 1.42 home runs per nine yet not only will he be facing a Padres team that ranks dead last in ISO and 28th in long flies on the season, but he’ll be pitching in the MLB’s second best pitcher’s park, not it’s second worst. Plus, on top of everything else, San Diego also sits last in baseball with a .217 average against left-handed pitching, not even within 15 points of the next closest club. Start Nuno on Thursday. Fight through the weirdness.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5TH

  1. Jarred Cosart (13%) vs. ATL
  2. Bartolo Colon (42%) @CIN
  3. Aaron Harang (40%) @MIA
  4. Drew Hutchison (14%) @BOS
  5. T.J. House (2%) vs. CWS
  6. Vance Worley (15%) @CHC
  7. Tsuyoshi Wada (29%) vs. PIT
  8. Jake Peavy (48%) @DET
  9. Clay Buchholz (38%) vs. TOR
  10. Cory Rasmus (0%) @MIN

The term McCarthyism has gone undervalued and become under appreciated since the end of the Cold War, so, even though Russia’s current president looks like this, I feel like I have the opportunity to redefine the the word. McCarthyism will now refer to the affliction that caused fantasy owners to ignore the aforementioned Brandon McCarthy even though he’s in the midst of the best season of his career –  inflated HR/FB ratio. McCarthy, who had fallen to third in baseball, is once again leading the league after surrendering three home runs to the Blue Jays on Sunday, though T.J. House would have a higher rate at 17.4% if he only had the innings to qualify. House’s notoriety is actually on the rise after an impressive outing on Sunday Night Baseball, but the truth is he’s been a steady stream option since becoming a full member of the Indian’s rotation. The lefty has a 2.89 ERA in August even with all of his last four starts coming away from Progressive Field (where his ERA of 3.13 is more than a full run lower than it is on the road). A  huge part of this success is tied into House’s ability to induce ground balls and avoid extra-base hits in fact his 60.6% ground ball rate would rank second in all of baseball. Really the only concern I have about this start is the same concern you’d have in any outing against the White Sox: Jose Abreu. The rookie has a massive .431 wOBA versus left-handed pitching, while House’s biggest issue has been pitching to right-handed opposition. Toss in the once again healthy Avisail Garcia and there is threat in Chicago’s line-up, but not enough to scare me away from House.



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