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FANTASY GOLF – US Open Picks and Preview


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US Open Picks
Defending Champ: Martin Kaymer

FNTSY Sports Network’s Pat Mayo and Drew Dinkermeyer chat the strategy and Jeff BergersonDavid Fraye & David Allan give their top 2015 US Open Picks for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker event. At 2:55 Dinkmeyer (DailyRoto.com) explains how to build/ keep track of multiple lineups and the top strategy for winning a giant guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournament. At 11:36, Bergerson (FantasyGolfInsider.com) discusses which of the favorites should make up the core of your roster. At 25:00, Fraye (ProjectRoto.com) and Mayo debate which players from $8,600-$7,400 that present the best value. At 40:55, Allan (PGADFS.com) highlights sub $7,400 players you should be targeting to round out your DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineup.

US Open DraftKings Millionaire Maker: Core Players/Ownership % |  Strategy | $13K-$8.8K | $8.7K-$7.4K | $7.3K & Below
US Open: Betting Guide/One and Done | DK Millionaire Maker Picks | Picks & Preview | DK Instant Pricing Reaction
Pat Mayo Hour:  Video | Audio | Facebook | Twitter | DFS (All Sports): Daily Roto | Victiv Strategy
PGA HOT TAKES: Hideki’s Manager | FOX US Open Coverage | Tiger Woods | Golf Fight | Slocum Wager | Rory’s Girlfriend
DFS Golf Strategy : Multiple Entries | Bankroll | Starting Research | GPP vs Cash | Roster Construction | History vs  Form

New to DraftKings but want to win $1,000,000? I have the solution. SIGN UP HERE for a FREE ENTRY into the US Open Millionaire Maker contest NOWWW!!!!!!

Video: Subscribe to the Pat Mayo Hour on YouTube | Audio: Subscribe to the Pat Mayo Hour on iTunes

2015 US Open Preview

My sources have dug up a secret screenplay, currently in production for the 21st Century Fox film adaptation of the 2015 US Open from Chambers Bay. This is the cold open. Yes, movies can have cold opens, that terrible Entourage movie proved that.

FADE IN:

INT. BOARDROOM – DAY

It’s 2010, this is the meeting chamber of the USGA. The USGA BOARD, eight old, white men in classic out-of-touch garb (blazers with a chest crest, polos) surround an ancient oak table, each with a glass of scotch in hand, waiting on the decision to be made concerning the location of the 2015 US Open. At the head of the table a single seat remains vacant.

USGA OLD FART 1
(pointing to the bathroom door)
What’s he doing in there?

USGA OLD FART 2
It smells like my gardener.

USGA OLD FART 3
(alzheimerly)
Where am I?

USGA OLD FART 4
(pointing to pocket watch)
Can we hurry this up, already? It’s almost 3 o’clock. If I don’t make it to dinner room before 3:30 all the prime seating and luxury mush will be gone.

We hear the flush of a toilet, the bathroom door opens. HUMPHREY WORTHINGTON IV exits the bathroom followed by a cloud of smoke. HUMPHREY has the majority of his unkempt hair hidden beneath a purple beanie, the remainder is gathered in a ponytail, tucked into the back of his cloth poncho. Unlike the rest of the of room, HUMPHREY is sporting shorts and flip-flops opposed to the standard USGA issued black slacks and corrective orthopedic shoes. HUMPHREY sits at the head of the table.

HUMPHREY
OK old dudes. What do I gotta do again?

USGA OLD FART 1
(from a giant, leather-bound USGA rulebook)
As the acting head of the Pacific Northwest region of the UGSA, the choice of venue for the 2015 US Open has been bestowed upon your organization. And, with your father currently incapacitated, that decision falls on you, boy.

HUMPHREY
(surprised)
Oh yeah…

HUMPHREY trails off and begins blankly staring straight ahead with his mouth ajar. The eight USGA board members begin trading shifty eyes with one another.

USGA OLD FART 1
Humphrey, son, what location did you select?

HUMPHREY
(snapping from his trance)
Humphrey is my pops, Mr. Burnside, everyone calls me Hump Daddy. Director of the hump and hump related activities.

USGA Old Fart 1 Fine. Which venue did you pick?

HUMPHREY, again, stares dead-eyed at USGA OLD FART 1

USGA OLD FART 1
Is it Cherry Hills, for the first time since 1978?

USGA OLD FART 5
(Giddily)
Are you planning the triumphant return of Tiger Woods Torrey Pines?

USGA OLD FART 2
(sternly)
Torrey Pines is too close to Mexico.

USGA OLD FART 5
Is it too soon to behold Pebble Beach’s majesty for a sixth time?

USGA OLD FART 1
Humphrey…

HUMPHREY
Yeah, dude?

USGA OLD FART 1
Have you made a decision?

HUMPHREY
(while eating a granola bar)
I make lots of decision.

USGA OLD FART 1
Have you made a decision on this?

HUMPHREY
(Chuckling to himself, with a mouth full of granola bar)
On what?

USGA OLD FART 1
(enraged)
ON THE GOD DAMN LOCATION OF THE US OPEN YOU DRAFT-DODGING COMMIE KNOW NOTHING!!!

HUMPHREY
Woah. Relax gramps. Toke this chill stick.

HUMPHREY pulls an unlit joint and lighter from his poncho pocket and extends it to USGA OLD FART 1.

USGA OLD FART 1
(angrily)
Get your narcotics away from me.

USGA Old Fart 1 bats the joint from HUMPHREY’S hand.

USGA OLD FART 1
(exacerbated)
I can’t go to jail. You know what happens to men like me behind bars? They take things we love, like Tennis and make you play on a first come, first serve squash basis. WITH COMMON RACKETS!!! IT’S MADDNESS!!!!!!!!!!

USGA Old Fart 1 begins to sob uncontrollably.

USGA OLD FART 7
(defeated)
Look Humphrey, you win. Pick anywhere, we don’t care anymore. Just make sure the course actually exists outside of your mind.

HUMPHREY
OK, check this. I got this place that’s sick. It’s in Washington, or maybe Canada. There’s, like, a bunch of water…

HUMPHREY leans his head forward, over the table.

HUMPHREY
(coyly)
…but no one can actually hit into it. And it’s got lots of that crazy long grass from England, little hills everywhere and sand. Wall to wall sand, man. All over the place. I heard, back in like dinosaur times, the land was playground for baby T-Rexs, and the course was built on the sandbox part. Seriously. Oh, and like, one day, the first hole’s a Par 4, but the next day, prepare for you mind to be blown, it’s a Par 5. I think it’s called Chalmers Bay, NO… Chambers Bay, and it’s got the most rad vibes. And, get this, when you start getting bummed about golf, it’s only an hour away from the desert, ocean and mountains. How far out is that?

USGA OLD FART 1
Chambers Bay? That monstrosity has no dignity. We are the USGA, dammit. We bleed prestige.

HUMPHREY
Well, tough shit, man. It’s my decision and I pick Chambers Bay.

Just then, a smoldering vortex appears in the center of the table. A man dressed in a hooded black cloak, with a golf amulet around his neck and a rope belt emerges from the vortex. He reveals his face from behind the hood and pierces the USGA BOARD with his flaming red eyes. This undead man is the HEAD OF THE USGA. The room falls silent.

HEAD OF THE USGA
It has been decided. Chambers Bay will host the 2015 US Open. There will be no further dissension. All shall fall in line or suffer the ultimate damnation.

USGA BOARD
(collectively)
Yes, my Lord.

The HEAD OF THE USGA descends back into his hellish abyss, with the sound of screams of pain emanating from the vortex.

HUMPHREY
(waving)
Sweet hemp belt, brah.

SMASH TO TITLE CARDS

The currently untitled film has an estimated budget of $150m. Matthew McConaughey is in negotiations to play the role of Humphrey Worthington IV. Scientists are also working on a way to de-age Don Cheadle so he can fulfill his destiny and play Tiger Woods.

Expected released date: Only in my mind. 

US Open Key Skills

Improvisation
Driving Distance
Greens in Regulation
Sand Saves
Scrambling

While Chambers Bay is a unique choice to host a US Open, it has already accomplished a very tough task – bringing people together. All stand united in their bitching about Chambers Bay. Players are whining because it’s too hard. Writers are complaining it’s too far away from Seattle. USGA Old Fart 2 is still upset there hasn’t been a 50-foot high wall erected to separate the United States and Mexico.

Me? I love it. As a real life antagonist, I love seeing any mass group collectively hate something just so I can take the other side. However my affinity for Chambers Bay isn’t merely love for contrarian sake, all golf fans are going to enjoy this US Open. It’s going to be entraining as hell. From the dazzling landscapes to links style layout to malleable yardage, Chambers Bay is going to provide the ultimate golf viewing experience (FYI: That line was not taken from a Chambers Bay promotional pamphlet).

Everyday the course changes. The 1st and 18th holes will flip between Par 4 and Par 5 every round. The 9th doubles as a 224 yard Par 3, from a tee box 100-feet above the hole, and a 217 yard uphill iron the following day. Don’t forget the greens that encourage a Happy Gilmore-esque approach to putting.

With the yardage shifts, cavalcade of tee boxes and so many unknown contours, favoring players that have proven they can quickly adapt to conditions is essential. As will be leaning on driving distance and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Yes, it turns out Chambers Bay isn’t expected to measure over 7750 yards like many initially anticipated, but distance will still reign supreme. Length off the off tee will take many of the hazards out of play. Plus, it’s much easier to scramble the closer you are to the hole, especially in a links style set up that will give players the ability to attack the greens from multiple angles. Statistically, scrambling and sand save percentage are helpful to look at to gain a sense of a player’s strengths, but the bunkers and rough at the US Open are unlike anything else on Tour, so their predictive value is relatively low. Low distance, accuracy players will be able to compete with the yardage coming in shorter than expected, but I still prefer the longer hitters to triumph. There are so many unknowns at Chambers Bay, loading up on players that have to endure fewer hazards seems sensible.

There’s also a fescue of fun to be had with FOX doing broadcast. Many are skeptical about FOX jumping back into the golf game, especially at such a marquee event, but at least you know they’ll make it entertaining. Not only have they paired two of the most unlikeable people on the planet – Joe Buck  and THE SHARK Greg Norman – together in the booth, you have to think FOX brings their unique brand of TV gimmicks to the links. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see BUNKER CAM, PUTT TRACER, DRONES and, most importantly, A SLOW MOTION ANGLE FROM INSIDE THE HOLE… INSIDE!!!!!!!!!

I look forward to all of this.

US Open Picks

Henrik Stenson & Bubba Watson – While a Major isn’t worth any more Fantasy points than a regular Tour event in the Yahoo! game, it does give us an unusual bounty of elite players to pick from. Honestly, with so much high-end talent in the A “List,” I feel comfortable fading Rory McIlroy (likely to be the highest rostered player) for two others that have similar chances of hoisting the creatively named US Open Trophy. Henrik Stenson started feeling ill towards the end of the Shell Houston open in March. Turns out, he was suffering from a “flu” that caused him to drop 20 pounds. The crazy part? The Swede battled through quite admirably and has started regaining his elite form, and the weight. Despite not achieving the same level of success as earlier in the year, Stenson has posted T20s in two of his past three starts and hasn’t missed a cut since January. The No. 5 player in the world rates highly in every pertinent stat except driving distance. Stenson only averages 288.5 yards off the tee (98th). However his supreme accuracy (10th) will keep him out trouble, and his links acumen will make up any distance disadvantage. Now at full health, backing a player off the collective’s radar can help create a points gap in the standings. The two courses that resemble Chambers Bay the most, in terms of length and layout, are Kiawah Island (2012 PGA Championship) and Whistling Straights (2010 PGA Championship, also the site of this year’s PGA Championship). Two events where players bombed their way to sizable paychecks. Also, two courses where Bubba’s skill translated perfectly: Watson lost in a playoff at Whistling Straights and churned out a T11 at Kiawah. Generally, the US Open set up doesn’t favor Bubba because of his inaccuracy, but at a course where the entire field will have to overcome trouble, his wild driver won’t sink his chances. And with Bubba putting at a higher clip than any other point of his career (39th), managing out of the sand (63rd) and saving his ass on the regular (13th in scrambling), Chambers Bay is, maybe, the only US Open venue that is tailored to his game. Throw in his ability to make impossible shots look like he’s playing on rookie mode and you have a Fantasy stalwart.

A-List Alternates: Rory McIlroy & Jim Furyk

Dustin Johnson & Justin RoseDustin Johnson withdrawing from the St. Jude Classic was the best thing that could have happened to his Fantasy prospects. Now, no one wants to take him. Don’t be one of those people. It will be a costly mistake. While DJ has been shutout in Majors, this year is shaping up to be his best chance. He’s never as much enduring success at any point of his career, and like Bubba, may never have another US Open suit his skills so perfectly. No one in the field hits the ball farther than Johnson, and it’s led to the 10th most strokes gained tee-to-green, fifth most eagles, sixth most birdies per hole, and the fifth best scoring average on Tour. I worry about DJ’s propensity to take giant numbers if he gets into trouble, but no other player will be able to generate easier scoring chances, and actually convert them (6th in birdie or better percentage). Since I have a feeling Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler are going to pop up on a lot of rosters, I’ll pivot and go with a player that’s actually won a US Open: Justin Rose. The Brit checks every box on the skill set needed, and may have the best form of any elite option with a win and two runner-ups in three of his last four medal events.

Phil Mickelson & Hideki Matsuyama – When you talk about improvisational ability, Phil Mickelson is the first name that comes to mind. Second would be Liam Neeson, but for different reasons. Since the US Open shifts locations every year, “course history” isn’t really a thing, although, that doesn’t mean you should overlook past US Open results. The sheer difficulty of the USGA set up, and those who’ve experienced success in those conditions, is important to note. While the US Open is the only thing standing between Phil and the career Major grand slam, he’s been tremendously consistent over the years. Lifetime, Mickelson’s made 22 of 24 career US Open cuts, including seven in a row. In his past 10 starts at the National Championship, he earned silver four times and came fourth another. It’s very clear Phil is gearing his game around the Majors too; he’s finished second in the past two. Does it shock you to learn Hideki Matsuyama has only missed one cut in nine career Majors (2014 Masters). I’m certain it does. Frankly, I think people get overwhelmed upon finding out how good the 23-year-old has been over the last two years. Matsuyama is up to No. 14 in the world rankings based largely on his immaculate tee-to-green game (2nd) and ability to both drive the ball a mile with above-average accuracy (3rd in total driving). His putter has been problematic (122nd), but at a course where so few are familiar with the speed and contours of the greens, his disadvantage isn’t as pronounced.

B-List Alternates: Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Byeong-Hun An & Billy Horschel

Patrick Reed & Francesco Molinari – Patrick Reed has major SWAG, which should lend itself nicely at a Major. Reed’s also one of the only players in the field that has played competitive rounds at Chambers Bay (T17 at 2010 US Amateur). So compound those factors with the number of stokes he gains compared to the field (13th), his elevated birdie rate (12th), strong sand game (27th) and a propensity to scramble from any disastrous location (16th), and you have a potential winner. It’s all about timing with Francesco Molinari. The Italian is HOT FIYA at the moment with three T5 in his past four starts and done so against elite competition at the Memorial and BMW Championship. Molinari has plenty of links experience to navigate the layout and he may be the hottest putter in the world at the moment. Yes, I’m terrified his lack of length will be his undoing, but he faired respectably at Whistling Straights (T33) and Kiawah Island (T54) without possessing his scorching recent form. There are likely safer alternatives from this group, Kevin Na and Ryan Moore for starters, yet Molinari has equal odds to win and will appear on far fewer Fantasy teams.

C-List Alternates: Kevin Na & Ryan Moore



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