FANTASY FOOTBALL – Week 8 FLEX Rankings & NFL Preview
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THE FLEXPERT v14.8 – Week 8 FLEX Rankings
After perusing the Week 8 injury report, I’d wager many are down a running back, need a temporary fill, and have no access to Flex Seal – ONLY $14.99!!! So, there’s been a shift in the ranks. Not quite of tectonic proportions, but not outright incomparable. It’s about time you stop playing for the 2013 championship. Things have changed. The moment’s arrived to take some shots, especially if you’re close to out of it. And no, 1-6 isn’t out of it; 1-7 is however.
This week’s low end RB2/FLEX crop requires a freshman handbook to get caught up to speed. In sooth, I don’t even know if freshman handbooks actually exist. I’m sure they do, I’ve seen them in movies, but I made the prudent choice to live “off campus.” No handbook required when that city has a real downtown scene. These fresh-faced RBs, though, you’ll need one for them. So get to know your new RBs – and the place I’m from!!! Here’s where they sit in the Week 8 FLEX rankings… AND BEYOND!!!!!!!!
Week 8: Ranks Debate | FAAB Bids | RB Adds | WR Adds
Week 8 Ranks: QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
Week 8: Bye Week Adds | Harvin Trade | Points Allowed
Tre Mason – Fantasy Football’s supposed to be fun, right? Then start Tre Mason. I’m so ALL IN on him it’s kinda terrifying. Is there a chance Mason is a one-week wonder destined to return to whence he came – like Bobby Rainey, Lorenzo Taliaferro and Storm Johnson before him? Sure. But I don’t care. If you can’t adapt on the fly, you’re destined to lose. Grab Mason off the wire (if he’s still there, which he shouldn’t be) and watch the points follow. The rook averaged 5.4 yards per touch against the Seahawks and Niners – not bad. To put that into perspective, Seattle and San Fran are giving up 3.4 yards to all non-Tre Mason running backs. Mason’s legit. You went out and got him, so play him. Oh, I’m choosing to ignore the Jeff Fisher coach-speak that Stacy, “could get 25 carries” btw. Well, lots of things could happen, like Zac Stacy getting zero carries again. I can’t clairvoyantly predict how involved Benny Cunningham and Stacy will be moving forward – that’d be lying – but Mason’s one of the few running backs to enter the Fantasy scene of late that has a chance to claim the starting job, get 15-25 touches per week and actually keep it. He has upside merely by being good, especially with the Rams’ offensive line establishing a modicum of consistency recently, but the upside of his potential opportunity makes the investment one that could boost your team not just in Week 8, but Week 16 too. You know what, forget about all that. Here’s what’s important: despite the strong (and valuable in Scrabble) “z” in Zac inspiring confidence, closing with a soft “c” inherently makes him bad. Sorry to I had to break the news, “Marc”. Now, TRE, that oozes awesome. It sounds like a fragrance. Also, if you change you team to “Forgot about Tre,” you deserve to lose every game, forever.
Isaiah Crowell – That same opportunity potential existing within Mason applies to Isaiah Crowell equally, it’s just, his path to glory is slightly more cluttered. However it is why he’s been seated on the stash rankings summit all season. Terrance West has fallen out of favor in Cleveland and Ben Tate’s the only thing standing in between Crowell and 25 touches a game. Plus, like Mason, he’s really good. I worry a tad about the impact Alex Mack’s absence has on the Browns’ offensive line, as their shameful showing in Jacksonville should have been the target of a series of fail memes; still, it was the first week without him. They get a mully from me. Cleveland now has game action to work off assuring the required adjustments are made. The O-line may not get back to its elite level from the first few weeks, but this unit shouldn’t be that miserable again – injuries pending. Regardless, the Browns will continue to run anyway and there’s at least safety in volume. The return of Josh Gordon in a few weeks – AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH – should finally bring resolution to the biggest question of the ’90s: WHAT’S IN THE BOX??? Answer: fewer defenders. For Week 8, I still have Crowell ranked pretty highly as a FLEX option. While I concede I may just be a sucker, I believe he’ll see 10-15 touches against a weak Raiders run defense (26th per PFF) and being the owner of the second best Breakaway%, of any RB, inspires a degree of confidence. It just takes one loose seam and, like that, he’s gone. FYI: Knile Davis is actually first in Breakaway%. You’ll want to hold Davis. He’s still the top value handcuff whether you own Jammal Charles or not. Why? If Charles disappears, Davis is a lock Top 12 RB.
Denard Robinson – Based on his workload alone, Denard Robinson has to be considered a Top 25 RB against the Dolphins. When you’re in a coin flip situation between two running backs, always compare projected usage first, then weigh that disparity versus the weekly matchup – not the other way around. Now, the Nard Dog’s someone to give up on quickly when his role inevitably alters. Eventually, Storm Johnson will start seeing more carries again (not enough to be useful, but enough to hurt Robinson), and that awful Toby Gerhart will rematerialize to Shang Tsung some more Fantasy value out of him. That’s on top of playing behind the 30th rated run blocking O-line. Not to mention, Jacksonville doesn’t A) play the Browns every week, who allow north of 155 rushing yards against per game and B) aren’t usually ahead and running the ball that often. Robinson’s a guy to ride while he’s hot and cut when it’s over. Or, try to trade him if you can – people love a recognizable name! Maybe you get lucky and he holds the gig, it’d be fun exploiting his WR/RB eligibility. It would recreate the fun of playing Joe Webb QB/WR or Marques Colston TE/WR all over again, but Robinson’s (success probability x opportunity x potential) isn’t favorable.
Anthony Dixon & Bryce Brown – This one’s tough. It’s truly going to be a wait-and-see situation before knowing how the touch distribution is going to unfold in Buffalo. My guess, Anthony Dixon gets majority of the work between the two and produces the closest to what we were getting from Fred Jackson; I’d expect him to be the RB on the field for most passing downs and near the goal line. His familiarity with the scheme should have him prevail in touches, at least for one game. That said, Bryce Brown has the most upside, but much like C.J. Spiller, he may not get enough chances to realize it. And touches are paramount against the Jets, an incredibly difficult team to run on; much like the Bills. Dixon and Brown are close in the Week 8 FLEX rankings because of the unknown variables attached, but I’m leaning towards Dixon as I prefer a higher floor. For the next few weeks, with the Bills’ offensive play calling being fairly conservative, I want Dixon. He doesn’t come with the fumble history of Brown, and Buffalo can’t afford to leave its defense with short fields. That said, all of this shifts once we actually get to see how the Bills allocate touches. It’d be moronic not to readjust. Remember, neither should be counted on as a long-term option. Jackson should be back in a month and the schedule between now and then isn’t exactly positive: Jets, Bye, Chiefs, Dolphins.
Ronnie Hillman & Brandon Oliver – As long as their respective battery mates remain shelved, consider both Top 15 RB plays every week. If you’re looking to acquire one for the rest of the season, you want to get Hillman. He’ll fend off Montee Ball more times than Oliver fades Ryan Mathews/Donald Brown; and the ceiling of the Denver RB job is a lot higher.
#BINGEWATCH
This, the 18th season of South Park. Although some of the subjects feel trite – start-ups and gluten, especially – this whole Lorde subplot is the most bizarre, catchy and randomly hilarious thing I’ve seen in some time. It’s only four episodes in, so the entire binge only takes around an hour and a half. An hour and a half, to quote Icelandic forward Olaf Sanderson, “well worth it.”
WEEK 8 Top 20 QBs (Most Updated QB RANKS)
- Russell Wilson
- Aaron Rodgers
- Drew Brees
- Peyton Manning
- Andrew Luck
- Tony Romo
- I’m Philip Rivers?
- Carson Palmer
- Smokin’ Jay Cutler
- Nick Foles
- Ryan Tannehill
- HELLO JOE Flacco. Iron helps him play!
- Tom Brady
- Teddy Throwsevelt
- Matthew Stafford
- CAAAAMMMMMMMMMMM
- Chef Hoyardee
- I borrow my dad’s suits Kyle Orton
- Alex Smith
- Ben Roethlisberger
EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX
- BAL/CIN
- CHI/NE
- BUF/NYJ
- MIA/JAX
- MIN/TB
- SEA/CAR
- STL/KC
- HOU/TEN
SUICIDE LAYUP
DAL over WAS
WEEK 8 D/ST RANKS
- DET
- MIA
- HOU
- PHI
- BAL
- BUF
- DAL
- CLE
- NE
- NYJ
SUPERLOCK
DET (-3.5)
THE REVENGE SOCIETY
Eddie Royal at DEN
Ryan FitzMAGIC at TEN
QUICK READS
Note: Lions/Falcons is in London and starts at 9:30am ET. Calvin Johnson owner, prepare to get screwed. Johnson was “limited” in practice Wednesday, although no one actually saw him practice, and will undoubtedly be a game-time decision. I’ll have the latest spin the moment I know, but the information being generated from overseas may be less reliable than usual. UPDATE: Johnson did practice Thursday and Friday and that’s always the big test; if he’s active, I’m going to have him in my lineup.
I have a deep hatred for Lamar Miller. It’s what happens when you watch him: the drops, the confusing cuts, the fumbles – it’s maddening. Yet, he continues to pile up Fantasy points at an elite rate behind Miami’s revamped O-line. Still, every time I write his name into my rankings and I see Lamar Miller staring back at me on the page, creating a level of anxiety that I’m simply not equipped to deal with. So, I’ve got a solution. You know how some players won’t lend their names to video game because of licensing? Like, how Barry Bonds went by Reggie Stocker all those years in The Show or Michael Jordan and Larry Bird weren’t Jordan and Bird outside of the horrid Jordan vs Bird: One on One; that’s how Miller’s appearing in my ranks from now on. Henceforth, he shall be known as… Dolphins Starting RB. And Dolphins Starting RB’s been pretty good with no one to snake his job in sight. He’s posted a TD or 100 yards in every game and received more of the workload than ever in Week 7, a season high 18 carries. Oh, and he gets Jacksonville too, always an advantageous matchup. The Jags have given up double-digit points to the opposing starting running back five of seven weeks. Terrific news for Dolphins starting RB.
From a buying perspective, I love that Cecil Shorts III posted a stinker against the Browns. Because the opportunity persists and, for a volume player like Sideshow Cecil, that’s all that really matters. Since returning from a hamstring problem two weeks ago, Shorts has 25 targets and has watched his snap count increase in both games. Some are pensive due to his declining aDOT, but when Blake Bortles is your QB and your offensive line doesn’t allow him anytime in the pocket, the guy standing as close to him as possible is going to be peppered with targets. There’s a real chance Shorts see more balls during this game than he does in the locker room afterwards.
Adjusting to trends doesn’t just mean looking at a season stat total and extrapolating from there. Those numbers don’t tell the entire story – THEY LIE!!! It’s more about understanding which numbers contain predictive value, especially in the case of Michael Floyd. You need to eliminate every stat that doesn’t involve Carson Palmer tossing him the ball. In Palmer’s three games he has either 100 yards or a TD. Moreover, in Floyd’s past five Palmer games, he has at least one reception that’s been worth a minimum of 4.4 standard Fantasy points. Chalk that up to the league’s fifth best aDOT. And against Philly, the team giving up the fourth highest percentage of completions over 40-yards, HOT DOG, WE HAVE A WEINER!!!
Again, sometimes simply absorbing bulk numbers can fudge what you’re actually seeing. For example, if Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates have played against a team, chances are, their overall numbers against tight ends aren’t very strong. But, sometimes, you get the opposite of that. That’s the Dolphins, who’ve had real issues stopping tight ends in the red zone. Four scores to the position in four different games. Chalk it up to a lackluster linebacking corps. And it makes Clay Harbor a calculated TE stream in Week 8. He’s averaging over five targets per game the last four weeks and his minuscule aDOT and 90-percent catch rate should get him few looks in close… if the Jags can get there. Harbor’s not a must start, but a terrific desperation option and salary cap filler in DFS formats.
You know who hates covering receivers? The Jets. In fairness, outside of limiting running backs, they generally hate doing anything well. Making Sammy Watkins a fixture near the top of the Week 8 FLEX Rankings. Like I said, New York stops the run, couple that with the Bills losing both their backs last week, and Kyle Orton will be forced to take to the air. And Orton already throws the ball more than you may think. Since becoming the starter three weeks ago, Orton’s tied with Andrew Luck for the most completions of any QB in that span. And 23.3-percent of his aimed passes are heading directly at Watkins. Since Orton’s taken over under center, Watkins has more yards than Julio Jones, more targets than Julian Edelman and more catches than Brandon Marshall. And one of those games he was rendered inert by Darrelle Revis, seeing only three targets.
At the top of the QB rankings this season there’s been a consistent rotation of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees. It makes sense, that quartet produces big points basically every week. They’re safe. But, there’s a new pivot atop the RANKS in Week 8. It’s Russell Wilson at Carolina. He’s just been killin’ it lately. 30+ Fantasy points in two of the last three weeks, doing it in the air AND on the ground. He’s rushed for a score in three straight and thrown multiple TD passes in every week but one. Expect the scoring to continue against the Panthers too. They don’t stop anyone. Carolina’s ceded multiple QB scores in six of seven games and its defense bleeds yardage. It’s why they’ve given up an average of 35 points the last five weeks. Another quirky Carolina fact for those of you attempting to build a unique GPP DFS roster: The Panthers have allowed at least 10 Fantasy points to multiple RBs on the same team all but one game since Week 3. Pay attention to Robert Turbin if you like cheap long shots… or to Christine Michael.
When you’re digging up potential streaming options at quarterback, recent performance is just as important as matchup, and Carson Palmer’s got both. He’s hurled exactly two TDs in every start and now gets to join the long list of mediocre-to-average QBs that have torched the Eagles: Chad Henne, Austin Davis and Kirk Cousins all returned Top 12 QB value the week they took on Philly. I’m not saying Palmer’s an elite pivot, but he is compared to those scrubs. Start him with a great deal of confidence. Ryan Tannehill too. It may appear on the surface like the Jags have solved their defensive woes, capped off by making a mockery of my Week 7 super start Brian Hoyer last Sunday. But, honestly, that blame falls on Chef Hoyardee, not the defense. He couldn’t hit even the most WIDE OPEN of receivers. The week previous, they shut down Charlie Whitehurst – impressive stuff! Things will revert back to the usual against TanneTHRILLHO, who’s been generating sneaky Top 10 QB value lately. Because, like Wilson, he’s begun posting weekly points with his feet. Tannehill’s averaging 44 rushing yards per game over the last three, on top of tossing two TD passes per contest.
It only took every single person in the world giving up on Darren McFadden (momma McFadden included) for him to evolve into an every week starter. That’s pure Fantasy Football logic. There was confusion coming into the year surrounding whether Maurice Jones-Drew would compromise the value of Raiders backfield. That hasn’t been the case though, since MJD’s been a non-factor. McFadden’s seeing almost 80-percent of the Oakland RB rush attempts over the last month, and has at least 30 rushes plus routes run in four of the past five weeks. And if that opportunity persists against the Browns, it’s going to result in a BIG DMC outing. Cleveland’s ceding the most yards on the ground of any team and have allowed seven TDs to the position in seven games. For the mathematically averse, that’s an average of one a game. Math!
Owen Daniels finally had his first giant Dennis Pitta-less performance against the Falcons. And he’s set up for an even bigger outing against the Bengals – tight ends destroy the hapless Bengals. For the season, they’ve allowed at least 78 yards to the position in every game but one, and recently, they’ve actually been worse. Like, the worst in football. By a large margin. Ceding 30: Three, Zero; PPR Fantasy points per game to TEs the last three weeks. That’s really bad. Or good. If you start Owen Daniels. Crockett Gillmore will now be the starter in Baltimore with Daniels’ late week injury.
After ceding a late TD, the Browns became the first team all season NOT to score double-digit Fantasy points against Jacksonville. They merely finished with eight; still good enough for a Top 10 showing. I’ll take that reliability. Opposing D/STs are still averaging just shy of 12 Fantasy points per week against the Jags, by far the highest number in the league. So Miami, YOU’RE NEXT!!! You know what happens when the league’s second best pass rush clashes with a middling O-line, starting a quarterback who’s thrown 10 picks in five games? ALLLLLL the fantasy points!!!!!!
PPR WEEK 8 FLEX RANKINGS
NOTE: PPR scoring only truly affects outliers. PPR Ranks and Standard Ranks are similar with the exception extreme reception magnets like Pierre Thomas, Justin Forsett & Darren Sproles (PPR Positive) and the stonehanded Alfred Morris, Frank Gore & Stevan Ridley (PPR Negative).
Week 8: Ranks Debate | FAAB Bids | RB Adds | WR Adds
Week 8 Ranks: QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
Week 8: Bye Week Adds | Harvin Trade | Points Allowed
Pat Mayo Hour – Week 8 Rankings Debate w/ Jake Ciely
Week 8 Starts & Rankings
SHUNNED!!!: Ray Rice
RESHUNNED!!!: Adrian Peterson
Probable: Jonathan Stewart (Leg), Khiry Robinson (Forearm), Jordan Reed (Hammy)
Questionable: James Starks (Ankle), Darren Sproles (Knee), Marqise Lee (Ankle), Eddie Royal (Rib), Kelvin Benjamin (Dizzies), Jimmy Graham (Shoulder), Calvin Johnson (Ankle), Toby Gerhart (Foot)
Doubtful [Not Ranked]: Rashad Jennings (Knee), Rabbi Shonn Greene (Hammy), Donald Brown (Concussion), Pierre Thomas (Shoulder), Harry Douglas (Foot), A.J. Green (Toe), Eric Ebron (Hammy), Joseph Fauria (Ankle), Reggie Bush X (Ankle), Trent Richardson (Hammy)
Out: Ryan Mathews (Knee), Montee Ball (Knee), Fred Jackson (Groin), Victor Cruz (Knee), MARV Jones (Ankle), Reggie Wayne (Elbow), Owen Daniels (Knee), Deangelo Williams (Thigh), Donnie Avery (Hip)
Cut: Austin Pettismile
Keep Stashing: Josh Gordon (Suspension)
- Matt Forte
- Le’Veon Bell
- Dez Bryant
- DeMarco Murray, Present
- Antonio Brown
- Jamaal Charles
- Arian Foster
- Marshawn Lynch
- STEVE SMIFF SEÑOR
- Jordy Nelson
- Randall Cobb
- Michael Floyd
- Julio Jones
- Jeremy Maclin
- Sammy Watkins
- Golden Tate III
- Joique Bell
- Andre Ellington
- Dolphins Starting RB
- LeSean McCoy
- T.Y. “Gene Mean” Hilton
- Greg Olsen
- Justin Forsett
- Ahmad Bradshaw
- Gio Bernard
- Mike Wallace
- Brandon Marshall
- Alshon Jeffery
- #GRONKSMASH!!!!!
- Vincent Jackson
- Ben Tate
- Kelvin BenJAMIN’
- Andre Johnson
- Eric Decker
- Julian Edelman
- Cecil Shorts III
- Delanie Walker
- Jordan Reed
- Mohamed Sanu
- Kendall Wright
- Pierre Garçon
- DeSean Jackson
- Darren McFadden
- Eddie Lacy
- He went to Jerick McKinnon
- Alfred Morris
- Marques Colston
- Doug Baldwin
- Roddy White
- The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald
- Allen Robinson
- Tre Mason
- Shane Vereen
- Denard Dog Robinson
- Jimmy Graham
- Andrew Hawkins
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Dwayne Bowe
- James Jones
- Brandin Weber Cooks
- Terrance Williams
- Justin Hunter
- Mike Evans
- Doug Martin
- Oh, hai Mark Ingram (Special Guest Rank: Juan Elway)
- Isaiah Crowell
- Reggie Bush X
- Darren Sproles
- Travaris Cadet
- Zach Ertz
- Martellus Bennett
- Brian Quick
- Torrey Smith
- Jarvis Landry
- Andre Holmes
- Reggie Wayne
- Jordan Cameron
- Dwayne Allen
- Chris Ivory
- Bishop Cranky
- Anthony Dixon
- Theo Riddck
- Bryce Brown
- Jonathan Stewart
- Percy Harvin
- Jermaine Kearse
- Riley Cooper
- Greg Jennings
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Jordan Matthews
- John Brown
- Brandon LaFell Sexwell
- TRAVIS KELCE!!!!!!!
- Charles Dice Clay
- Clay Harbor
- Donte Moncrief
- Robert Turbin
- Benny Cunningham, and his wife, Oprah
- Antone Smith
- Matt Asiata
- Super Storm Johnson
- Bobby Blame it on the Rainey
- Coby Fleener
- Scott Chandler
- Heath Miller
- Crockett Gillmore
- Cooper Helfet
- Jace Amaro
- Jonas Gray
- Jeremy Hill
- James Starks
- Steven Jackson
- LOUIS MURPHY!!!!
- Robert Woods
- Jarius Wright
- Taylor “Sledgehammer” Gabriel
- Kenny Stills to Pay the Billz
- The Walls of Jerricho Cotchery
- Davante Adams
- Miles Austin 316
- Martavis Bryant
- Andre Roberts
- Allen Hurns
- Maurice Jones-Drew
- Knile Davis
- Daniel Herron
- Roy Helu Jr.
- Alfred Blue
- Chris Johnson
- Bernard Pierce
- LeGarrette Blount
- Toby Gerhart
- Dexter McCluster: Telling you not to LOL and Drive
- Dr. Jacoby Jones
- Jeremy Kerley
- Brian ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND IT’S TYMS FOR A CHANGE
- “High Speed” Kenny Britt
- Nasty Nate Washington
- Brice Butler
- Lance Moore
- Jason Witten
- Jermaine Gresham
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins
- Tim Wright
- Kyle Juszczyk
- Jeff Cumberland
- Ben Watson
- Chase Ford
- Brent Celek
- Andrew Quarless
- Jeremy Ross
- Danny Amendola
- Travis All About the Benjamins
- Marlon Brown
- Paul Richardson
- Chris Polk
- Daniel Thomas
- Zac Stacy. Film Credits: “Super Mario Bros.” as Goomba
- Joseph Randle
- Stepfan Taylor
- Brandon Bolden
- Niles Paul
- James Casey
- Brandon Pettigrew
- Josh Hill
- Gavin Escobar
- Brandon Myers
- Garrett Graham
- Luke Willson
- Mychal Rivera
- Devonta Freeman
- Lorenzo Taliaferro
- Marcel Reece
- George Winn
- Christine Michael
- Markus Cream of Wheaton: NOW WITH EXTRA GLUTEN!!!
- Brandon Tate
- Marqise Lee
- Dane Sanzenbacher
- Jason Avant
- Jarrett Boykin
- Ace Sanders
- Brian Hartline
- Devin Hester
- Denarius Moore
- Stedman Bailey
- Brandon Gibson
- Country Music Sensation Griff Whalen
- Santonio Holmes
- Tavon Austin
- Greg Little
- Rishard Matthews
- Corey Fuller
- Chris Givens
- Terrence West
- THE OG DAWG – Chris Ogbonnaya
- Ka’Deem Carey
- Jacquizz Rodgers
- DeAnthony Thomas
- Lance Dunbar
- Leon Washington, The Professional
- Jonathan Grimes (Or, Grimey, as he likes to be called)
- Dri Archer #DANGERZONE
- Jordan Todman
- Darrin Reaves
- Frankie Hammond
- Brandon Lloyd
- Mike Williams
- Ryan Broyles
- Marquise Goodwin
- David Nelson
- Cole Beasley
- John Carlson
- Levine Trololo
- Anthony Fasano
- Zach Miller (SEA)
- Brandon Bostick
- Chris Gragg
- Rhett Ellison
- Jackie Battle
- James White
- C.J. Anderson
- Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
- Jalen Parmele
- Tauren Poole
- Bilal POWWWWell
- Mike James
- Silas Redd
- Latavius Murray
- Kris Durham
- Kenbrell Thompkins
- Junior Hemingway
WORST PLACE!!!
- Oh, hai Mark Ingram
- Lamar THRILLER
- Second Worst RB of all time, Trent Richardson
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