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FANTASY FOOTBALL – Week 12 Bye Replacements: A Jonas Gray Area


FootballNFL

**All Bye Week Replacements are owned in less than 50% of leagues**

Quarterbacks

On Bye: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Cam Newton (CAR)

  1. Josh McCown (TB) @CHI
  2. Brian Hoyer (CLE) @ATL
  3. Zach Mettenberger (TEN) @PHI
  4. Kyle Orton (BUF) vs. NYJ
  5. Alex Smith (KC) @OAK

Coming into 2014, a lot of comparisons were made between the situation Josh McCown was leaving and the one he was entering. Much like Chicago, Tampa Bay appeared to have two, big-bodied, legitimate wideouts, primed to help McCown remain fantasy relevant. Now, between injuries and the overall realization that there was a reason the journeyman QB had played for five teams over the course of his career, this hasn’t exactly been the case. Yet, the initial prognostication has proven to be true. Not only do the Buccaneers have two above-average WRs, Mike Evans is without doubt elite and he is single-highhandedly doing his best to carry McCown. Over the past two weeks, a stretch in which Evans has accounted for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns, the former Bear ranks second of all QBs with an aDOT of 12.8, sixth with 589 passing yards, and, very sneakily, second behind just Russell Wilson with 47 rushing yards (but, you know, he’s 138 yards behind him). The former is of the most interest. Consistently throwing deep is nice, but it doesn’t mean much if you’re not able to complete those passes – McCown can. Though the sample size is obviously smaller than most, McCown is the fifth most accurate quarterback on passes of 20+ yards so far this season, and, of the four names ahead of him (Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, and Andrew Luck) he easily has the highest deep attempt rate at 14.2%. This trait should only be amplified against the aforementioned Bears, who’ve allowed the sixth most 20+ yard passing plays (37), the second most passing TDs (24), and the highest yards per passing attempted of any defense (8.2). Also, it’s a revenge game. Never underestimate revenge.

Runningbacks

On Bye: Le’Veon Bell (PIT), DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (CAR)

  1. Isaiah Crowell (CLE) @ATL
  2. Charles Sims (TB) @CHI
  3. Jonas Gray (NE) @DET
  4. Bryce Brown (BUF) vs. NYJ
  5. Knile Davis (KC) @OAK

Here’s the thing you have to understand about the New England Patriots: They do what it takes to win and, generally speaking, that means exploiting opposing teams’ weaknesses. When playing the Indianapolis Colts, that’s running the ball down the throat of the 22nd ranked rush defense according to DVOA. Sort of like they did in last season’s Divisional Playoffs where the illustrious LeGarrett Blount (so good he was cut this morning) also racked up four TDs with 166 yards against Indy. But that is specific to the Colts. Unless you have Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski on your team, the only guarantee about the Patriots, at least fantasy-wise, is that there are no guarantees. So while, yes, Jonas Gray looks like a tempting add, he, just like a stable of New England skill players behind him, is just a spot play – and Detroit is not that spot. Crucial to Gray’s success on Sunday night was his snap count, as the Notre Dame graduate played a season-high 57 snaps, resulting in Gray being on the field for 74% of New England’s offense. Now, before even looking ahead, let us look back. Gray had only played 64 snaps combined in his previous three games in 2014, not seeing anything close to similar usage aside from maybe Week 8 versus Chicago, where the young back had failed to convert eight red zone carries into a single score. Against more stout run defenses in Denver and New York, Gray managed just 15 carries respectively and, for PPR purposes, he’s received just a single target on the season overall. The Lions rank first in defensive DVOA, first in run specific defensive DVOA, first in yards per rushing attempt (3.0), first in rushing yards allowed per game (68.8), and second with just four rushing touchdowns allowed. Bill Belichick is a smart man. Try an follow suit. Let someone else waste the FAAB budget on Jonas Gray, be disappointed, then stash him when he’s inevitably dropped next week. It’s actually pretty black and white.

Wide Receivers

On Bye: Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Marcus Wheaton (PIT), Kelvin Benjamin/Jerricho Cotchery (CAR)

  1. Doug Baldwin (SEA) vs. ARI
  2. Andrew Hawkins (CLE) @ATL
  3. Malcolm Floyd (SD) vs. STL
  4. Cecil Shorts III (JAC) @IND
  5. Jarvis Landry (MIA) @DEN
  6. Kenny Britt (STL) @SD
  7. Justin Hunter (TEN) @PHI
  8. Allen Hurns (JAC) @IND
  9. James Jones (OAK) vs. KC
  10. Riley Cooper (PHI) vs. TEN

I’m not necessarily suggesting that Andrew Hawkins won’t be the most talked about member of the Browns receiving group this week, but I hear this Josh Gordon guy sometimes grabs the headlines. Either way, I think Gordon’s return only helps Hawkins value in the long run. First off, we’re talking about a guy who is a targets magnet. The former Bengal’s 12 last weekend versus the Texans was the sixth most in all of football for Week 11, not to mention the eighth time in his nine games so far in 2014 where he’d accumulated at least eight. It’s also not as if he isn’t taking advantage of said targets. With a modest aDOT of 9.7, you’d assume the slot-type Hawkins might have trouble racking up the yards if not for a high catch conversion rate. Yet, with a Top 20 YAC per reception of 5.7 yards, the Brown has finished with 70+ yards in two thirds of his games. If Gordon can continue to take the top off the defense as effectively as he did in 2013, Hawkins should have all the room in the world to operate with his elite, 4.3 second 40 speed. Really, if anyone is going to be hurt by Gordon’s return, it’s Taylor Gabriel, who’s 14.4 aDOT is far more comparable to the Baylor products’ 14.8 number from last year. Going up against a Falcons team surrendering the third most yards to WRs per game (191.3) and the eighth most fantasy points in standard formats, I’ll take the guy quietly getting more targets this season than Mike Wallace, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. Don’t let Gordon scare you away – Hawkins will still have great value for Cleveland.

Defense/Special Teams

On Bye: Pittsburgh, Carolina

  1. Indianapolis vs. JAC
  2. Green Bay @MIN
  3. San Diego vs. STL
  4. New York @BUF
  5. St. Louis @SD

It’s impossible to project that the Packers defense will continue the 23.5 point pace they’ve put up over the past two weeks, but since Week 3 they’ve been high ceiling DST unit with little risk. In those eight games, Green Bay has scored in the double-digits four times and, aside from a prime time contest at New Orleans, they’ve registered at least six points due to their 14 interceptions ranking third in all of football. While the game may be in Minnesota (you tend to want to stream home defenses), I’d expect the good times to continue with the Vikings sitting 30th on the season in yards per game, 28th in scoring, and coming off a less than impressive 18.2% third down conversion rate against a more than underwhelming Bears squad. Sure, Rodgers might be leading the charge, but the Packers’ D has been almost as good at getting into the end zone as of late.



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