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FANTASY BASEBALL – Weekend SP Streams: Trevor May


BaseballMLB

Saturday, April 25th (Yahoo! Ownership)

  1. Trevor May (1%) @SEA
  2. David Buchanan (1%) vs. ATL
  3. Kendall Graveman (6%) vs. HOU
  4. Rubby de la Rosa (2%) vs. PIT
  5. Scott Feldman (2%) OAK

I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Saturday isn’t exactly the most plentiful stream day. I know, right? If Scott Feldman‘s inclusion in the Top 5 didn’t give it away, there it is. Out in the open. This was a problem we were bound to encounter at some point. Early season favorites Anthony Desclafani and Trevor Bauer showed why they were held in such graces and are now, rightfully, owned by the majority. Still, if former top prospects in mid-America are your game, do I have a pitcher for you. Trevor May looks like an ace – a 6’5, 220 frame will do that for a guy, but the results have yet to match the appearance. May pitched to a 7.88 ERA over 45.2 innings making his MLB debut last season and while surrendering five runs to Kansas City to begin 2015 didn’t really inspire confidence either, the righty is coming off a six inning win over Cleveland – easily the best outing of his career. Strikeout upside is the key to May’s value. The former fourth round pick has never registered a K/9 below 8.6 at any minor league level in which he threw 65+ innings, posting consecutive seasons above 11.5 at High-A in 2010 and 2011. This didn’t go unnoticed. May was actually named the Phillies’ top prospect in 2012 by Baseball America, eventually leading to him being the Twins main compensation in the trade that sent Ben Revere to Philadelphia. So why hasn’t that seemed to translate to the majors? Well, bad luck, as usual, would be the most accurate explanation. In his 57 career innings, May has allowed a .505 wOBA to opponents with runners on base, the victim of an unrelenting .446 BABIP and 31.6% line drive rate in those situations. Unless May is literally physically unable to pitch from the stretch, this won’t continue. Now, it’s likely his new found control (one walk in 11.1 innings this season) won’t sustain either, but its give and take. The rookie is worth a shot this weekend.

Sunday, April 26th

  1. Nick Martinez (24%) @LAA
  2. Nathan Eovaldi (20%) vs. NYM
  3. Jon Niese (12%) @NYY
  4. Kyle Lobstein (1%) vs. CLE
  5. Brandon Morrow (18%) vs. LAD

Sticking with young pitchers that have seemingly found something after forgettable results in their first major league stint, Nick Martinez has been absolutely on fire to begin 2015. The 24 year-old has surrendered only a single earned run across 20 innings this April, starting half of the Rangers’ six wins so far this season. Now, I could tear down the unsustainable .222 BABIP, I could mention how none of the 21 fly balls Martinez has allowed have left the park, I could even talk about how his already underwhelming fastball velocity from 2014 has fallen to 89.5 mph – but instead let’s just accept the fact that this is not going to continue, mostly due to the fact that Martinez basically can’t strike anyone out. Since the beginning of 2014, only one pitcher, Kevin Correia, has a lower K/9 in at least 150 innings than Martinez’s 4.83 mark. That’s bad. Plus, it makes his 90.5% strand rate laughable. Yet, Martinez isn’t a complete stay-away, you just have to make sure you pick the correct spots. The right-hander, as one would expect, has been slaughtered by left-handed batters to this point of his career, as illustrated by a sizeable .351 wOBA. The Angels don’t have many left-handed hitters, but, maybe more importantly, their secondary right-handed hitters have struggled immensely versus righty pitching. In fact, David Freese, C.J. Cron, and Chris Iannetta have combined to hit .136 (14 for 103) against righties in 2015, very much in line with their lesser right-handed career splits. Again, streaming the soft-tossing Martinez is always playing with fire, but if his 36.7% O-Swing (up from 24.9% in 2014) and 44.4% ground ball rate (up from 32.9%) are indications of a trend and not just a small sample size, the Ranger might be figuring out the weak contact inducing style that could prolong his career. He’s certainly not for the DFS community, but Martinez deserves a look on Sunday in redraft formats.



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