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St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers

FANTASY BASEBALL – Weekend, Monday & Tuesday SP Streaming Power Rankings


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April stinks. It is, without question, the worst month to project and stream pitchers. Wednesday’s Toronto/Minnesota game was cancelled due to snow. Yeah. Snow. R.A. Dickey already blames wind, humidity, and most likely radio frequencies for the inconsistencies of his signature knuckleball, so I’m going to assume its effects are diminished in a blizzard. The first four weeks of the season are generally marred by injury, off-days, and the elements. This, obviously, creates turmoil in pitching schedules and match-ups. Did Martin Perez benefit from suddenly being pushed forward to start against Houston last Sunday? Sure. Did I intend to use him as a valuable two-start pitcher for Week 3? You better believe it. Needless to say, when streaming in the early part of the year you have be more attentive than normal – especially when it comes to the usually crucial weekend. There would be nothing worse than picking up Brad Peacock tomorrow and having him not pitch Sunday. Because then you just own Brad Peacock. You’re that guy. Actually, if you’re reading this Friday morning, maybe planning on picking up Jason Vargas for a Saturday stream, don’t bother. He was moved up to tonight. I’ll assume most outside the greater Missouri area were unaware of this and I honestly can’t blame you. Not often “Vargas” is trending on Twitter. Please – pay attention.

SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH

  1. Roenis Elias (3%) @MIA
  2. Jose Quintana (47%) @TEX
  3. Henderson Alvarez (2%) vs. SEA
  4. Eric Stults (3%) vs. SF
  5. Ivan Nova (48%) @TB
  6. Colby Lewis (2%) vs. CWS
  7. Brett Oberholtzer (3%) @OAK
  8. Kevin Correia (1%) @KC
  9. Kyle Kendrick (3%) @COL
  10. Bud Norris (2%) @BOS

Roenis Elias (3%) @MIA – Elias has already made his rounds through the AL West this season, posting his best outing of the young campaign his last time out against Texas. It will get substantially easier this weekend in Miami. Now, I’ll get this out of the way early – entering Week 4, we’ve just reached the cusp of 2014 stats actually meaning something. That said, most pitchers with good numbers might as well have “REGRESSION” tattooed across their forehead. Elias for instance sports a .222 BABIP and 84.3% strand rate. Yes, these will normalize, but you’re looking at the wrong stats. The key for the lefty will be gauging if his 17.6% line drive rate is an aberration or the beginning of a trend. If it’s the latter, Roenis definitely has some value. Also, regression works both ways. Don’t expect the Marlins’ league leading .340 team BABIP to sustain much longer.

Brett Olberholtzer (3%) @OAK – We all knew it had to happen at some point. Sooner or later I was going to suggest streaming an Astro, I mean, the entire rotation is generally unowned, so there’s 162 opportunities – one had to eventually look decent. Don’t let Olberholtzer’s 0-3 record fool you, he’s actually pitched quite well to begin 2014 and against top-end talent. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rangers managed just seven earned runs off Olberholtzer through 18 innings, equating to a stellar 2.93 FIP and 0.94 WHIP. A lot of this success is due to a change in pitch sequence. So far this season Olberholtzer is throwing his curve 28.1% of the time, up from 16.7% in 2013, and batters are hitting it a measly .177 clip. Add in a strand rate of 66.3% that is sure to at least normalize and there’s a ton to like about Houston’s lefty. Just remember, he’s still an Astro. Wins will always be at a premium.

SUNDAY, APRIL 20TH

  1. Juan Nicasio (3%) vs. PHI
  2. Robbie Erlin (8%) vs. SF
  3. David Hale (3%) @NYM
  4. Brandon Morrow (10%) @CLE
  5. Rick Porcello (38%) vs. LAA
  6. Robbie Ross (6%) vs. CWS
  7. Erik Johnson (2%) @TEX
  8. Phil Hughes (7%) @KC
  9. Hector Santiago (11%) @DET
  10. Carlos Carrasco (1%) vs. TOR

Robbie Erlin (8%) vs. SF – Erlin’s stat-line might be the most fun of any player in baseball right now. It makes almost zero sense. Through 11.1 innings this season, the San Diego rookie has fanned 14 batters and walked just one. Incredibly small sample size, but a 31.1% strikeout rate all the same. So you’d figure with all those whiffs, it’d be Erlin’s strand rate that would be unsustainable, right? No – it’s down at 63.6%, putting his 3.18 ERA nearly four times higher than his 0.83 FIP. Add in a 33.3% line drive rate, 12.2% swinging strike rate, and a 0.97 WHIP and you have a mess of stats pulling you in opposite directions. But let’s slow down. This is what we know about Erlin – he’s young, he’s talented, and if he wants to be successful he needs to start conserving pitches. He’s also got the benefit of calling Petco Park home and facing the suddenly slumping Giants offence, which, after a torrid start, has scored just 11 runs in their past five games. I like the match-up. Just don’t expect the strikeout numbers to stay where they are.

Robbie Ross (6%) vs. CWS – In the context of a streaming pitcher, Ross is a decent option. Even after leaving the bullpen he’s basically remained with a two pitch, fastball/slider arsenal, using the latter to rack up a respectable 6.5 strikeouts per nine so far in 2014. The problem is he’s just not as good as his 1.00 ERA or, well, Pat, suggests. Ross’ 10.7% walk rate through 18 innings is worrisome to say the least, and while that lack of control has yet to hurt him, he can’t sustain the pace he’s going at. His 88.5% strand rate is 7% higher than last season, which is slightly important when you consider last year he worked out of the bullpen. A 72% groundball rate is impossibly high, but necessary if Ross plans on continuing to induce a pair of double plays every nine frames. He’s due for a bad start and I can see it happening against a Chicago team that ranks 4th in the MLB in average and 5th in slugging percentage. Ride the hot streak if you must, but I warned you. Maybe respect the opinion of a man whose knowledge will bite your face off.

MONDAY, APRIL 21ST

  1. Wily Peralta (17%) vs. SD
  2. Zach McAllister (9%) vs. KC
  3. Jenrry Mejia (11%) vs. STL
  4. Tom Koehler (3%) @ATL
  5. Dan Straily (42%) vs. TEX
  6. Tanner Roark (15%) vs. LAA
  7. Jeremy Guthrie (7%) @CLE
  8. Garrett Richards (43%) @WSH
  9. Bronson Arroyo (15%) @CHC
  10. Dallas Keuchel (1%) @SEA

Wily Peralta (17%) vs. SD – The great thing about the 2014 Padres, and, well, I guess most San Diego incarnations the past decade, is that you don’t just get to pick on them when they’re playing at home – they’re terrible on the road too. For example, until Xaiver Nady’s long fly in yesterday’s 3-1 loss to Colorado, Seth Smith had held at least a share of the team lead in home runs throughout 2014. Smith hasn’t had a ball leave the park since the second game of the season. It’s bad. Peralta is not. In fact, this seems to be the start of a pitcher finally realizing his potential. He’s always had the stuff, his fastball has the 6th highest average velocity of any pitcher this season, it’s just been about controlling it. Peralta is down to 2.45 walks per nine through 18.1 innings, over a full batter less than 2013. Really, the only concern so far this campaign has been a substantial 21.4% HR/FB ratio. That’s going to regress. No question. Even so, Peralta for his career has a fly ball rate just over 27%. He keeps it on the ground. If that continues, he should keep out of trouble.

Zach McAllister (9%) vs. KC – This match-up almost seems too perfect. You have McAllister, who, through three starts this season, has had his success dictated by an ability to not give up the long ball. Then you have Kansas City. Dead last with four home runs. Also bringing up the rear with a .333 slugging percentage. Now, McAllister’s not going to go the entire season unscathed, obviously, but with a 1.01 HR/9 for his career, it wasn’t like it was that daunting an issue anyway. Honestly, the key for McAllister has been keeping his fastball off the barrel of bats. Sitting at just less than 93mph on average, the righty is more importantly generating sufficient movement on his four-seam to stay away from danger. The pitch has a 10.6% whiff rate early on, nearing elite for a fastball. Aside from missing bats, hitters have also been unable to consistently square up the pitch – McAllister’s line drive rate sits at an impressive 16%. I expect his run to continue against the Royals.

TUESDAY, APRIL 22ND

  1. Kyle Gibson (10%) @TB
  2. Brandon McCarthy (2%) @CHC
  3. Tyler Skaggs (28%) @WSH
  4. Tommy Milone (5%) vs. TEX
  5. Taylor Jordan (2%) vs. LAA
  6. Dillon Gee (29%) vs. STL
  7. Scott Feldman (39%) @SEA
  8. Erasmo Ramirez (11%) vs. HOU
  9. Edinson Volquez (13%) vs. CIN
  10. Miguel Gonzalez (5%) @TOR 

Brandon McCarthy (2%) @CHC – I feel for Brandon McCarthy. I really do. He was the poster child, or, I guess more specifically, magazine cover child, for embracing statistics to try and help his own game. Well, hopefully the stats start coming around – because right now they’re quite ugly. Through 25.1 innings pitched, McCarthy has given up the same amount of walks, six, as he’s given up home runs. That’s over two per nine innings. His WHIP is trending upward at 1.42, never a strikeout guy – his K% is just 14.4%, and his ERA is a disgusting 7.11. That’s the bad. Here’s the good. McCarthy’s xFIP is 3.37, suggesting there’s a lot of unluckiness plaguing the Diamondback. A strand rate of 58% is sure to go up when the home runs decrease, which will happen when his insane HR/FB ratio of 37.5% normalizes. At the end of the day McCarthy is a control pitcher who will eventually keep the ball on the ground. Also the Cubs were shut out twice this week on the same day. I suggest picking on them when streaming. Might be a decent strategy.

Dillon Gee (29%) vs. STL – Almost at the exact opposite end of the spectrum is Gee who is coming off his best start of the season, ironically enough against McCarthy and Arizona. Gee went seven scoreless innings, allowing just three base runners and striking out just as many. The problem however is that aside from that one outing, the veteran has been pretty average, not taking advantage of the luck he’s been blessed with so far in 2014. Gee’s strand rate is quite high at 79% and his opponent’s BABIP is 3rd lowest in baseball at .184 – a number sure to rise with a minuscule 5.9% swinging strike rate. I’m not saying Gee is worthless or that you should avoid him all season, but I’d be wary going into Tuesday. After struggling to begin the season, St. Louis has put up 5.8 runs a game their last six contests. The match-up and, more importantly, the numbers aren’t there.

Note: Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday streams will now be released on Tuesday



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