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Lucas Duda

FANTASY BASEBALL – Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: All the Duda Day


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Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Catcher

Added: John Jaso (OAK), Yan Gomes (CLE), Stephen Vogt (OAK, C/1B/OF)

Vogt’s positional versatility and breakout year at the plate have allowed the A’s to regularly play three catcher eligible players, making Jaso and also Derek Norris viable options for your team. Meanwhile, in Cleveland, Carlos Santana’s transition to corner infielder has gone relatively smoothly (12.5 UZR/150 at 1B) and has allowed for Gomes to receive regular playing time at the catcher position. Coincidentally, he’s thrived with a career high number of plate appearances resulting in career bests in home runs, runs and matching a career high of RBI (it’s still July). For the second consecutive year his batting average on balls in play is above career norm, but at .335 it’s not drastically different from the .327 career mark. The issue with Gomes will continue to be his 23.8 K% and 0.24 BB/K ratio, but with a batting average of .281 and on-base percentage of .324 it’s not hurting the Indians, or owners too much.

Dropped: Travis d’Arnaud (NYM), Derek Norris (OAK), Devin Mesoraco (CIN)

Mesoraco hit his 17th home run of the season Monday night, you sure won’t find that sort of production on the waiver wire.  The numbers (21.9 HR/FB%, .338 BABIP) tell us regression is coming, but the third ranked fantasy catcher on the season remains a must own.

Traded: Jonathan Lucroy (MIL, C/1B), Carlos Santana (CLE, C/1B/3B), Buster Posey (SF, C/1B)

How about that Carlos Santana?! The one that plays for the Indians has also been Incredibad incredible over the last week. From last Tuesday through Sunday he hit six homers, more than 21 other MLB teams over that span. He’s likely to cool off a touch again, but this is what those who’ve hung onto him all season have been expecting. You may be able to sell slightly high now, but he remains an elite fantasy catcher (ranked second amongst his peers), and should be kept.

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: First base

Added: Lucas Duda (NYM, 1B/OF), Billy Butler (KC), Chris Johnson (ATL, 1B/3B)

After entering the season as Ike Davis‘ backup at first base, Duda has run away with the job and forced Davis’ trade to the Pirates with his breakout year at the plate. He has career highs in home runs, steals, ISO, OBP and SLG%, and is well on his way to setting a new bar for plate appearances, runs and RBI. His HR/FB ratio (15.5%) is a tad high, but the split’s on a steady rise each of the last four seasons. While his line drive rate is down a touch, so is his ground ball percentage, with the difference being made up by more fly balls hence, more homers.

With a figurative non-compete clause on first base as well as the cleanup spot in the Mets batting order, Duda is leaned on heavily for the club’s offensive load. His wRC+ (runs per plate appearance) of 142 (average is considered 100) is bordering on outstanding as is his 2.1 WAR. His strikeout rate is down over 5% from last year and although a tad high (21.4%) is headed in the right direction. As of Monday afternoon he was available in over 50% of Yahoo! leagues and is likely the best available source of outside help for your push towards the Fantasy Baseball playoffs.

Dropped: Steve Pearce (BAL, 1B/OF), Brock Holt (BOS, 1B/3B/OF), Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE, 1B/3B)

All three had a good run that was almost surely going to end sooner rather than later. Chisenhall continues to hit for average (8th best in MLB) but has not hit anything but singles since a home run on the July 1st. This month he’s scored just seven runs with three RBI.

By matter of playing regularly for the best team of the three, Pearce would be the best option. Although, it’s been over a week since his last extra base hit, a double on the 19th. None of the above seem overly promising, but go Pearce unless you’re a Red Sox fan, then go with Holt as always.

Traded: Chris Davis (BAL), Matt Adams (STL), Anthony Rizzo (CHC, 1B)

Rizzo > Adams > Davis.

Man, Rizzo (24) is going to look good with all those kids in a couple years…

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Second base

Added: Josh Rutledge (COL, 2B/3B/SS), Josh Harrison (PIT, 2B/3B/OF), Yangervis Solarte (NYY, 2B/3B/SS)

Although Harrison deserves credit for this heads up base running; Rutledge is the hotter bat right now, and unowned in an additional 17% of leagues (but really Harrison is still available in over 50% and is the best play here). Over 152 PA Rutledge is riding a .408 BABIP with a .179 ISO. He’s not as shifty on the basepaths (0 SB), but has accumulated a 121 wRC+. If Harrison isn’t available in your league (seriously look, he probably is) and you’re in need of a shortstop or middle infielder, Rutledge should fill-in just fine while replacing Troy Tulowitzki. The face of the Rockies organization is sidelined indefinitely still, and may have even played his last game for the Rockies. As his replacement, Rutledge’s value would increase even more.

Dropped: Kolten Wong (STL), Omar Infante (KC), Scooter Gennett (MIL)

The only one not worth owning here is Infante. I’d prefer Wong slightly over Gennett (36% and 38% owned respectively) due to slightly more power, but don’t expect too much from either in that department.

Traded: Dee Gordon (LAD, 2B/SS), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Brian Dozier (MIN)

Unless you anticipate the newly acquired Darwin Barney to cut into his playing time, Gordon is the best option to target.

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Third base

Added: Chase Headley (NYY), Nolan Arenado (COL), DJ LeMahieu (COL, 2B/3B)

Small sample size alert: still just 50% owned in Y! leagues, Headley has looked revitalized for the Yankees. He has a hit in every single game in pinstripes (7), and hit his first Yankee stadium homer on Sunday versus the Blue Jays. While injuries have likely zapped him of his speed, hits of any sort will do a lot more in terms of personal production while playing for the Yankees than they did for the Padres.

Dropped: Chris Coghlan (CHC, 3B/OF), Ryan Zimmerman (WSH, 3B/OF), Casey McGehee (MIA, 1B/3B)

Nothing here to write home about. If Zimmerman gets some better news on his injury he’s obviously the play, but that’s unlikely at best.

Traded: Anthony Rendon (WSH, 2B/3B), Miguel Cabrera (DET, 1B/3B), Todd Frazier (CIN, 1B/3B)

Careful targeting Cabrera. If you’re looking for a big piece for your playoff push, he may cost you more than he’s worth. Yes, he’s one of the top hitters in the game, yes, he’ll be a big boost, but he’ll likely cost you several of your top assets. You may be better off with quantity than quality if you’re on the outside looking in.

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Shortstop

Added: Danny Santana (MIN, 2B/SS/OF), Jed Lowrie (OAK, 2B/SS), Chris Taylor (SEA)

Lowrie hit his first homer since June 1st (!!!) last Wednesday. He’s still been productive though in the meantime, racking up 50 R and 40 RBI. Although he’s suffering from a .266 BABIP in addition to the power outage, his low 13.1 K% has still allowed for a respectable (but not great) .319 OBP. He’s the most proven of the three, and most worthy of a spot on your roster.

Dropped: Alcides Escobar (KC), Stephen Drew (BOS), Jhonny Peralta (STL)

After a horrendously slow start for the Red Sox in 2014, Drew’s begun turning it around. While it’s almost certainly too late for them, it’s not for you. He hit two homers last week and has proven to be productive (yet streaky) in the past.

Traded: Hanley Ramirez (LAD), Jose Reyes (TOR), Ben Zobrist (TB, 2B/SS/OF)

It’s unlikely the Rays move Zobrist after climbing back into the playoff picture. Yet, if he does get moved to a serious contender, it would be a big boost to his (and owners) offensive numbers.

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Outfield

Added: Denard Span (WSH), Carlos Beltran (NYY), Christian Yelich (MIA)

Go with the proven bat in Beltran. His abysmal .231 BABIP has started to climb with five extra base hits since the 18th of July. It’s only going to go higher, and can be a big boost for owners during that rise. Despite his line drive rate being down 5% from career average, his ISO is just one point below .200. Available in more than 30% of leagues, he’s a smart pickup.

Dropped: J.D Martinez (DET), Coco Crisp (OAK), Allen Craig (STL, 1B/OF)

The incredible run by Martinez is over.

Crisp is getting regular off-days in order to prevent injury concerns rising in the playoffs.

And Craig is having a year to forget. No one worth adding here.

Traded: Matt Kemp (LAD), Nelson Cruz (BAL), Bryce Harper (WSH)

While you may be selling slightly high on Cruz, you’re probably best hanging onto him. You’re unlikely to get equal return for the MLB’s second best home run hitter, unless in dire need of pitching. Kemp and especially Harper could likely be bought-low and provide a late season boost.

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Starting Pitcher

Added: Jorge De La Rosa (COL), Marcus Stroman (TOR, SP/RP), Brandon McCarthy (NYY)

“We’re all stars now, in the Stro Show”. Well, Marcus is at least. He’s converted eight of his ten starts on the season since being made a starter (again) by the Jays, into quality starts. He’s inducing >50% ground balls and is surrendering less than a home run per 9 IP. His K/9 is lower in the majors than it was at any minor league level (duh), but so is his BB/9. He’s also drawing 1.52 ground balls per fly ball, and is quickly becoming the Jays number one starter. A start at Fenway Tuesday could give his stock another boost versus the lowly Red Sox.

Dropped: Shane Greene (NYY, SP/RP), Edinson Volquez (PIT), Odrisamer Despaigne (SD)

Despite being rocked in his last outing of just 3.2 IP, his defense took most of the blame with three unearned runs, meaning Despaigne hasn’t given up more than two earned in each of his six MLB outings. He’s given up more walks than he’s had strikeouts in half of his outings, despite a 7 K, 0 BB performance July 10th. What’s helped him thus far is that he he’s induced over 54% ground balls and is surrounding just 3% HR/FB. While likely still just a stream option, he’s a good one of those.

Traded: Stephen Strasburg (WSH), Jeff Samardzija (OAK), Zack Greinke (LAD)

Greinke > Strasburg > Samardzija. Luck will turn in Strasburg’s favor (and against Samardzija) soon.

Week 17 MLB Transaction Trends: Relief Pitcher

Added: Jacob deGrom (NYM, SP/RP), David Phelps (NYY, SP/RP), Jake McGee (TB)

Due to an innings cap being placed on deGrom, McGee is the most appealing. He’s striking out more than six times as many batters as he’s walking, and is 11-1 in save opportunities since taking from the comity that took over from Grant Balfour. The Rays figure to be in plenty of tight games down the stretch, providing him with plenty of work. Oh…He also hasn’t given up a home run in 47.0 IP!!!

Dropped: Neil Ramirez (CHC), Joe Smith (LAA), Joe Kelly (STL, SP/RP)

Traded: Francisco Rodriguez (MIL), Garrett Richards (LAA, SP/RP), Sean Doolittle (OAK)

If you’re in a rotisserie league and are out of the saves category even with K-Rod or Doolittle, than abandon hope there and try to address another area of need. Don’t trade Richards unless you get blown away by an offer.

As always comment or ask for advice below, or on Twitter @12EMac!



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