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FANTASY BASEBALL – Mike Moustakas’ Problem Pitch + July 26-29 Streams


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It’s been well established how difficult it is to perceive talent in the MLB Draft. For every David Price and Stephen Strasburg there are a hundred Bryan Bullingtons or Matt Bushes in what is, if not the hardest, easily the most complex entrance draft structure in all of sports. Forget the 24 teams that passed on Mike Trout, how about the 29 teams that passed on Albert Pujols multiple times? My point is not to place blame, but to expand on how difficult it is to quantify value in real-life baseball, let alone from a fantasy perspective. As we’ve seen this year, hyperbole and expectations can be met (George Springer) and they can have diminished returns (Oscar Taveres), but once a player gains a reputation, whether good or bad, it can be almost impossible to shake. That’s why we all know Mike Moustakas can’t hit, right? The evidence is overwhelming. There’s a chance he burned you the last two seasons and, obviously, it’s always fun to add a guy to the ever expansive Quad-A All-Star team (I mean, Travis Snider needs company) and that’s just re-draft formats. In the 20-team dynasty league I myself play in, Moustakas is signed to a three-year, 10 million dollar contact – based solely on how high he was taken in a 2012 draft. But don’t let the lazy consensus or the surface stats fool you, since his June 1st re-call Moustakas has value, you just have to be willing to see it.

At the time of his demotion, Mike Moustakas was hitting an atrocious .152 with four home runs. After managing just a .233 mark last season with an even more disappointing .131 ISO it was pretty much looking like the end of the line for the former top prospect. The few owners that possessed him dropped him – and rightfully so. In fact, it was barely noticed or even mentioned when he was summoned back to the Royals following a mere eight game Triple-A stint, but from that moment on the number two pick in the 2007 draft has been downright, well, acceptable. Moustakas has hit .243 in 136 at bats since the beginning of June, hitting four home runs in each of the past two months. Moustakas’ .192 ISO for the season ranks seventh amongst third basemen; those 12 long flies still place him Top 10 positionally – even with 150 fewer plate appearances than most everyday players at the hot corner; and his 15.9% strikeout rate is more than respectable. Yet the overall sub-Mendoza .199 average is still enough to scare most people away. Now, with a 47.4% fly ball rate, there’s a cap to just how much luck Moustakas can expect to benefit from, fly ball hitters like he and Edwin Encarnacion tend to have a BABIP in the .270 range. Even so, his .194 BABIP is over 30 points lower than any player with at least 250 plate appearances – and it all has to do with his lack of success on one pitch.

The general belief around baseball is that major league batters can always hit the fastball. It doesn’t matter how fast it’s going. It doesn’t matter where it’s put. If they know it’s coming, it’s going to be hit hard. It’s why there’s such importance placed on young pitcher’s secondary stuff. It’s also why Mike Moustakas’ struggles in 2014 have been so confusing. The Royal is hitting a lowly .111 off of opponent fastballs this season. You read that right. In the 81 at bats in which a fastball was either put into play or was the final pitch of the sequence, Moustakas has just nine hits. Now, it’s not as if this is a problem that had plagued him before. From 2011 to 2013, the left-handed hitting third baseman was batting .257 off of fastballs, not great, but in the context of his .224 career average – it was pretty good. It’s even more mind-boggling when you consider that Moustakas has actually been hitting these pitches with some authority. According to Brooks Baseball, he’s somehow maintained a .109 BABIP even with a 24.6% line drive rate on the fastballs he’s put into play. When this figure normalizes, and it will, expect far better numbers from Moustakas. Remember, to finish the season around .230, where most would have been reasonably content and unsurprised, he’d still have to hit roughly .260 through August and September. That’s basically Evan Longoria territory.

It’s difficult to get too excited about a player whose ceiling is so low even with seemingly all things that could go wrong currently doing so, but don’t confuse the mundane with the unimportant. Third base has been awful in 2014. Injuries and underachievement have suffocated the position and an ignored, but talented entity like Moustakas is just the sort of shrewd move that could keep your fantasy season alive. No one has ever doubted the potential of Mike Moustakas, currently sitting in your league’s waiver pool, be one of the few to actually exploit it.

SATURDAY, JULY 26TH

  1. Wily Peralta (49%) vs. NYM
  2. Jarred Cosart (9%) vs. MIA
  3. Bud Norris (6%) @SEA
  4. Drew Hutchison (16%) @NYY
  5. Jon Niese (27%) @MIL
  6. Odrisamer Despaigne (27%) @ATL
  7. Shane Greene (9%) vs. TOR
  8. Tom Koehler (17%) @HOU
  9. Matt Shoemaker (8%) vs. DET
  10. Ryan Vogelsong (15%) vs. LAD

The physical act of pitching might not be easy, but the theory behind it is pretty cut and dry: If you don’t strike out a lot of batters, you’d best not put extra people on base. So, while the strikeouts have all but disappeared in 2014, Bud Norris has at the very least adapted to fit that general model. For the first time in his now six-year MLB career, Norris is walking less than three opponents per inning (2.86) which, like I said, is very important because the K% of 17.3% is far and away a career-low. There are a few reasons for this. Not only has Norris’ slider, historically his best whiff pitch, been less effective than usual – it’s generating an unremarkable swing and miss rate of 13.9%, but he’s also throwing it 5% less often than he did in 2013. However, it’s a case of give and take. The free passes are down. The pitches have been closer to the zone. Therefore the pitches are more hittable. Consider that Norris’ current opponent swing rate of 45.7% is identical to last season, yet his contact rate has jumped nearly 6% to 84.9%. The Oriole has changed his pitching approach and it’s worked. Over his past five starts the righty has an ERA of 2.37, including two starts away from Camden, where he’s been better all season. In fact his ERA was a sterling 1.54 in those two particular outings, both of which he won. Give him a start against a Mariners club that ranks 29th in ISO and 28th in wOBA the past week, not to mention 28th in baseball for the entire season with a 6.4% walk rate – that can only assist Norris.

SUNDAY, JULY 27TH

  1. Collin McHugh (21%) vs. MIA
  2. Jake Odorizzi (30%) vs. BOS
  3. Jimmy Nelson (13%) vs. NYM
  4. Danny Salazar (45%) @KC
  5. Miguel Gonzalez (4%) @SEA
  6. Jake Peavy (38%) @TB
  7. Scott Carroll (1%) @MIN
  8. J.A. Happ (3%) @NYY
  9. Jacob deGrom (44%) @MIL
  10. Yusmeiro Petit (3%) vs. LAD

Here are some general facts that might be useful on Sunday. Jimmy Nelson likes to strike out batters. The Mets really like to strike out. That concludes today’s lesson. Yes, the major league sample size is small, Nelson has 16 strikeouts in just 16 innings, but the numbers in the minors back it up. In 111 frames in Triple-A in 2014, the towering righty struck out 114 opposing hitters using a combination of an overpowering mid-90’s fastball and a devastating slider – a pitch which has produced an impressive 22.1% whiff rate so far in the senior circuit. Some might point to the nine earned runs Nelson has surrendered since tossing a scoreless 5.2 innings against the Marlins in his season debut, but if New York isn’t enough of a counter argument, and they should be, their .059 ISO the past seven days is laughable, then mull over Nelson’s 62.5% strand rate which would be third lowest in baseball, if he had nearly the time to qualify. Nelson’s 48.9% ground ball rate is also nice to see, especially for a pitcher who will have to call Miller Park home – just ask Wily Peralta. In conclusion, there’s no need to worry about Jimmy. He’s cool like a fool in a swimming pool. If that’s not an endorsement, I don’t know what is.

MONDAY, JULY 28TH

  1. Bartolo Colon (38%) vs. PHI
  2. David Phelps (6%) @TEX
  3. Nathan Eovaldi (23%) vs. WSH
  4. Chase Anderson (6%) @CIN
  5. Vance Worley (5%) @SF
  6. Brad Peacock (1%) vs. OAK
  7. Tsuyoshi Wada (2%) vs. COL

Well, there certainly isn’t any question about whether or not David Phelps will continue to pitch in the Yankees rotation. Even with Brandon McCarthy brought in through trade and rumors of Ian Kennedy on the way, Phelps’ credentials have more to do with recent success than just opportunity. Putting aside a six run start versus Toronto on June 24th, which took place just days after the righty had already faced a Jays team that still featured Adam Lind and Encarnacion, Phelps hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his past eight starts. More recently, he’s pitched to a 2.40 ERA across his past five outings as his strikeout totals have normalized at 7.71 per nine innings. The fear with Phelps, surprisingly, has been pitching away from Yankee Stadium – generally regarded as a hitter’s park, but a closer look at his home ERA, almost two runs lower than his road split, shows that’s basically a mirage. The difference between his FIP at and away from Yankee Stadium is one hundredth of a point – so don’t worry about him being on the road. Especially when it’ll be in Texas because, well, the Rangers can no longer hit. For the past 14 days, Ron Washington’s club has produced just a .086 ISO and a league worst .262 wOBA. That’ll happen when J.P. Arencibia is your best hitter. Sorry Texas fans.

TUESDAY, JULY 29TH

  1. Jorge de la Rosa (20%) @CHC
  2. Marcus Stroman (35%) @BOS
  3. Trevor Bauer (20%) vs. SEA
  4. Mike Leake (42%) vs. ARI
  5. Brandon McCarthy (18%) @TEX
  6. Dillon Gee (33%) vs. PHI
  7. Rubby de la Rosa (11%) vs. TOR
  8. Chris Tillman (43%) vs. LAA
  9. Kyle Gibson (7%) @KC
  10. Aaron Harang (47%) @LAD

To pitch in Colorado you have to keep the ball on the ground, there isn’t a way around it. Much like Arizona, where pitchers have been plagued all season by inflated HR/FB ratios, Coors Field is an offensive playground where streams essentially go to die. Fortunately, Jorge de la Rosa is pitching in Chicago on Tuesday, but with his recent string of success it’s time to dissect whether he warrants a more permanent place on your fantasy roster.  The veteran’s splits actually suggest he’s fared far better at home than away from it in 2014 and a lot of that has to do with a career best 53% ground ball rate – a Top 15 mark in baseball. The strange part of all this is de la Rosa hasn’t really changed all that significantly this year, at least in terms of pitch usage, its just that his fastball is generating a grounder 51.3% of the time – a far higher percentage than he’s ever produced. The lefty has also seen his line drive rate plummet nearly 9% to a league best 16.3%, seemingly unsustainable, but not an outlier thanks to an insane 13.6% rate in 2012. All this has culminated in a fantastic 1.78 ERA in July, with de la Rosa walking under 2.50 batters per nine, without surrendering a single home run in three home outings. These factors will normalize some time soon, including a .268 BABIP way too low for an extreme ground ball pitcher, essentially rendering de la Rosa unownable. Yet, he’s still an above average stream option. Roll him out next week.



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