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FANTASY BASEBALL – 2015 Corner Infield Preview


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THORNE’S 2015 MLB POSITIONAL RANKINGS: 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | C | OF | SP | RP

2015 BIG NAME BUY-LOWS | THORNE AND SOPPE: CI | MI | OF | SP

FNTSY’s Garion Thorne and RotoExperts’ Kyle Soppe compare and break-down each other’s early 2015 MLB corner infield rankings including who sits atop the 3B position with the departure of Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion. Also, where does Prince Fielder sit after an injury plagued 2014?

THORNE’S 2015 1B RANKS

  1. Miguel Cabrera (DET) – The reigning AL MVP has posted a career-worst .193 ISO this season due in large part to an 11.9% HR/FB ratio – less than half of his 25.4% mark in 2013. If this is the floor, Cabrera is still incredibly safe, but 2015 will be much better.
  2. Jose Abreu (CWS)
  3. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)
  4. Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)
  5. Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
  6. Freddie Freeman (ATL)
  7. Joey “…and I love to get” Votto (CIN)
  8. Chris Davis (BAL) – 2013 appears to be an aberration, but scorned 2014 owners could cause Davis to drop an incredible amount going into next year. His .241 BABIP will normalize whether you’re citing his .322 career rate or his 25% line drive rate from this season. Also, the power’s still legit.
  9. David Ortiz (BOS)
  10. Albert Pujols (LAA)
  11. Victor Martinez (DET)
  12. Lucas Duda (NYM) – A 48.7% fly ball rate (third highest in baseball) does limit BABIP and AVG, but it also allows Duda to generate elite power with only a slightly above average HR/FB ratio of 17.4% – much in the vein of Encarnacion.
  13. Mark Trumbo (ARI)
  14. Todd Frazier (CIN) – A multi-positon threat who definitely has more value at third, Frazier sets himself apart with 20 steal potential.
  15. Carlos Santana (CLE)
  16. Adrian Gonzalez (LAD)
  17. Prince Fielder (TEX) – The biggest wildcard of the position. Putting aside the injury, Fielder’s 7.7% HR/FB ratio is due for massive normalization and, with a modest 13.5% strikeout rate, the former Brewer should benefit simply from putting the ball in play.
  18. Matt Adams (STL) – A .300+ AVG is hard to bank on considering it’s taking a .353 BABIP in 2014, but what’s lost there should be made up for in power. If Adams can sustain even a double-digit HR/FB ratio he could easily hit 25-30 home runs.
  19. Brandon Moss (OAK)
  20. Justin Morneau (COL) – Morneau has adapted perfectly to Coors Field posting his highest contact rate (85.1%) since 2008 and a career-low 10.9% strikeout rate. The Rockies as a team lead baseball with a .326 BABIP (.355 at home). Just put the ball in play. Seriously. It’s that simple.
  21. Chris Carter (HOU) – DIIIIIINNNNNGGGGGS!
  22. Adam LaRoche (WSH)
  23. Mark Teixeira (NYY)
  24. Mike Napoli (BOS)
  25. Brandon Belt (SF) – He’s always hurt, he strikes out way too much (27.1%), and his 2013 power surge hinged on a 19.3% HR/FB ratio that screams outlier without even factoring in his home park. Definite stay-away.
  26. Allen Craig (BOS) – His current .110 ISO puts him in the class of Erick Aybar and Jose Altuve, but a player to watch. A .281 BABIP is almost 50 points lower than his career mark even with a 56.3% ground ball rate – just outside baseball’s Top 10. Did the power just disappear?
  27. Eric Hosmer (KC)
  28. Billy Butler (KC)
  29. Joe Mauer (MIN) – Welcome to life without catcher eligibility, Mauer.
  30. Ryan Howard (PHI)
  31. James “I’m so” Loney (TB)
  32. Kennys Vargas (MIN) – Tearing it up through 100 career plate appearances. A .424 BABIP goes a long way. When that comes back to Earth, his seemingly allergic relationship with walks (3.9%) will limit him.
  33. Adam Lind (TOR) – An interesting platoon/utility guy. Has the major’s highest average (.359) against right-handed pitching of all players with at least 150 plate appearances. Also sporting a career-worst 7.3% HR/FB ratio.
  34. Michael Morse (SF)
  35. Jon Singleton (HOU)
  36. C.J. CRRROOOOOOONNNNNN (LAA)
  37. Casey McGehee-zax (MIA) – ANTI-DIIIIIINNNNNGGGGGS!
  38. Chris Johnson (ATL)
  39. Mark Reynolds (ARI)
  40. Stephen Vogt (OAK)

THORNE’S 2015 3B RANKINGS

  1. Josh Donaldson (OAK) – Later Miggy. See ya Edwin. We are now left with Donaldson as top of the position. Ouch. Still, a 14% line drive rate, lowest of qualified batters in baseball, should normalize in 2015. He’ll never be a .300 hitter again, but .275 is possible.
  2. Adrian Beltre (TEX)
  3. Anthony Rendon (WSH)
  4. Todd Frazier (CIN)
  5. Evan Longoria (TB) – Longoria still has the potential to be the best third has to offer and with some normalization in 2015 he very well might be. A .141 ISO wasn’t just a career-low, but the only time he’s sat below .200 for a season – due in most part to an also career-worst 10.1% HR/FB ratio.
  6. Nolan Arenado (COL) – Again, to be successful at Coors, you just have to put the ball in play. Arenado, in the mold of Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau, does just that. A minuscule 12.2% strikeout rate is among the league’s best and a 7% increase in fly ball rate between this season and last will only help in the altitude.
  7. Kyle Seager (SEA)
  8. Ryan Zimmerman (WSH)
  9. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) – 2014 was a weird year for the Pirate. His walk rate went above 10% for the first time. His strikeout rate dropped 5%. Must have been a great year, right? Not so much. Alvarez was affected by a 15.8% line drive rate and a near 10% drop from his 2013 HR/FB ratio. He’s a huge sleeper in 2015.
  10. Kris Bryant (CHC) – It’s always a risk when taking someone who will be the most hyped rookie coming into 2015 – honestly he’ll go too high in most drafts. Still, across two minor league stops, Bryant hit 43 home runs and maintained a walk rate above 14%. Very, very enticing.
  11. Brett “Mike” Lawrie (TOR)
  12. David Wright (NYM) – There few few players I disliked more coming into 2014 than Wright, but he’s not THIS bad. With a 5.5% HR/FB ratio (not even half of his career rate) the Met saw his ISO drop 108 points to sit at .099 – that’s disgusting. However, it’s a weak year at third and he’ll regress to the mean in 2015.
  13. Aramis Ramirez (MIL) – He’ll turn 37 during next season, but a .360 average and .314 ISO versus left-handed pitching are astounding. There’s still some left in the tank.
  14. Pablo Sandoval (SF)
  15. Manny Machado (BAL) – Apparently Machado will be ready for spring, but let’s not get too excited. Honestly, how good is Manny? Defense means nothing in fantasy, he doesn’t steal, he doesn’t walk, and a power surge in 2014 was dependent on a 15% HR/FB ratio. Not a fan.
  16. Josh Harrison (PIT)
  17. Matt Carpenter (STL)
  18. Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE)
  19. Martin Prado (NYY)
  20. Nick Castellanos (DET) – Care to wager a guess as to the American League’s line drive percentage leader? At 27.9% – it’s Castellanos. This title equates to a .262 average. Part of that is strikeout rate. Part of that is pure sadness.
  21. Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – You’re guess is as good as mine. Since 2011 A-Rod has put up ISOs of .185, .158, and .179 – terrible in the context of his own career, but decent for current third baseman. This strikeout rate has jumped each of his past two seasons, but this is still probably a conservative rank.
  22. Trevor Plouffe (MIN)
  23. Matt Dominguez (HOU) – A .124 ISO is too low for a player with Dominguez’s pop, plus a .256 BABIP should normalize in 2015 considering this is one Astro who isn’t an extreme fly ball hitter. In fact Dominguez had a 44.9% groundball rate and hit just .220 on grounders. That won’t continue.
  24. Chase Headley (NYY)
  25. Casey McGehee-zak (MIA)
  26. Mike Moustakas (KC)
  27. Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
  28. Chris Johnson (ATL)
  29. Juan Francisco (TOR) – A platoon player with plus power. Francisco hit to a .271 ISO and .357 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014.
  30. David Freese (LAA)


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