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FANTASY BASEBALL – 2015 C Rankings + September 10-12 SP Stream Ranks


BaseballMLB

THORNE’S 2015 MLB POSITIONAL RANKINGS: 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | C | OF | SP | RP

2015 BIG NAME BUY-LOWS | THORNE AND SOPPE: CI | MI | OF | SP

THORNE’S 2015 C RANKINGS

  1. Buster Posey Beach (SF)
  2. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)
  3. Devin Mesoraco (CIN)People are going to sour on Mesoraco for what they perceive to be a poor second half (and in comparison to his first – it was), but consider in that down period he’s hit .250 with a .189 ISO and .350 wOBA. That’s still positionally elite. If that’s his floor, that’s incredible.
  4. Sal Perez (KC)
  5. Yan Gomes (CLE)
  6. Matt Wieters (BAL)As a 2014 Wieters believer it was a tough injury and, if I’m being honest, probably unsustainable run. A .329 BABIP was easily the Oriole’s highest since his rookie season and was in large part due to what would be an American League leading 29.9% line drive rate. Wieters isn’t that good, but he’s a 20 home run lock if he stays healthy.
  7. Evan Gattis (ATL)
  8. Yadier Molina (STL)
  9. Brian McCann (NYY)McCann’s .246 BABIP is a little confusing. It’s been a three year trend, so I won’t say it’s not worrisome, but with his best line drive rate since 2005 (and overall best in any season with 250+ plate appearances) you’d have to believe he was a bit unlucky. McCann’s 10.7% HR/FB was his lowest in seven years, a 5.8% walk rate was more than a 3% drop from his career mark – he’ll be better in 2015.
  10. Wilin Rosario (COL)The biggest buy-low at the position. Rosario burned people this year with underwhelming production and injuries, but he’s been grossly unlucky too. A 4% HR/FB ratio over the course of the second half is insane as is his season BABIP of .169 on ground balls. Rosario will be the reason you can wait on a catcher next spring.
  11. Miguel Montero (ARI)
  12. Jason Castro (HOU)
  13. Wilson Ramos (WSH)Here’s the scary thing with Ramos and his career 16.7% HR/FB ratio – not only does that number seem abnormally high, but to hit double-digit home runs, he needs it to be inflated. Ramos has put together back-to-back 23.5% fly ball rate seasons, bordering on being one of the ten lowest rates in baseball. It’s one thing to not hit long balls. It’s another to not give yourself the opportunity.
  14. Travis d’Arnaud (NYM)2015 breakout candidate. A .260 BABIP contributed to a somewhat disappointing rookie year for d’Arnaud, but a .173 ISO and 15% strikeout rate (very low for a first-year guy) is extremely promising – as are a .283 average and .362 wOBA over 164 second half plate appearances.
  15. Yasmani Grandal (SD)Interesting combination of a very low BABIP (.255) and an almost 9% jump in strikeout rate. If Grandal can stay healthy and continue to draw walks at his 13.3% career rate, look for a bounce back season in 2015.
  16. Dioner Navarro (TOR)
  17. Derek Norris (OAK)
  18. Russell Martin (PIT)A lot of Martin’s value this season was tied directly to a .288 average made possible by a .341 BABIP – the first time the Pirate had even registered a figure over .300 since 2008. The speed is gone and so is the power. Steer clear of Martin.
  19. Mike Zunino (SEA)
  20. Carlos Ruiz (PHI) – Just about as consistent as they come. Ruiz will be the name that pops up when you need a replacement catcher in 2015 and that’s really about his ceiling. A 0.82 BB/K ratio is nice – especially considering his overall walk rate is 10.4%.
  21. Kurt Suzuki (MIN)
  22. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA) – Not surprising to see the home run total drop moving to Marlins Park from Fenway, but he still represents a deep power option at the position. Salty has a career .179 ISO, but as predicted in March, that 28.6% line drive rate from 2013 didn’t exactly carry over.
  23. John Jaso (OAK)
  24. Chris Iannetta (LAA)
  25. Welington Castillo (CHC)
  26. Tyler Flowers (CWS)Flowers very much enjoys not making contact. So… If that’s a thing your league rewards.
  27. Robinson Chirinos (TEX)
  28. J.P. Arencibia (TEX)
  29. Alex Avila (DET)
  30. Christian Vazquez (BOS)Might get some play as a sleeper on a universally recognized team – this is not a thing that should happen. A .053 ISO is incredibly sad and this lack of power is backed up by minor league numbers.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10TH

  1. Jake Odorizzi (42%) @NYY
  2. Wei-Yin Chen (38%) @BOS
  3. Jarred Cosart (22%) @MIL
  4. Josh Collmenter (10%) @SF
  5. Drew Hutchison (15%) vs. CHC
  6. Vance Worley (14%) @PHI
  7. Aaron Harang (36%) @WSH
  8. Chris Capuano (2%) vs. TB
  9. T.J. House (2%) vs. MIN
  10. Ryan Vogelsong (16%) vs. ARI

I’ve sort of had a pattern of laughing directly in the face of offensive trends so far this season, note how often I streamed against the Twins during their great stretch in April, but that won’t stop me from failing again – at least not if AT&T Park and the Giants are involved. Over the past two weeks, San Francisco has led baseball in scoring with 82 runs receiving contributions from little-discussed prospect Joe Panik, who at one point last week had gathered hits in 40 of his prior 100 at bats. This will not continue. Neither will the Giants .366 BABIP over this 14 day stretch, not surprisingly also a league best mark. Now, on the surface, Josh Collmenter may not inspire visions of grandeur in terms of a high ceiling stream pitcher, however he’s been on quite a run as of late. The Diamondback has a pristine 0.83 ERA over his past three starts, pitching into at least the seventh in all of those outings. Really, depth is the most appealing part of Collmenter’s game. The righty doesn’t strike out many, just 6.14 per nine, but he also doesn’t surrender any walks (2.15 BB/9), keeping his pitch count and risk level low. Collmenter, like many right-handed hurlers, does have his issues against left-handed hitters, they’ve accumulated a gaudy .346 wOBA when facing the former 15th round draft pick, but that’s another area where San Francisco has disappointed in 2014. The Giants have just two left-handed hitters (Angel Pagan and Pablo Sandoval) with a batting average above .260 in at least 200 plate appearances versus righty pitching. That’s not exactly threatening. Take a chance with Collmenter and San Francisco regression on Wednesday.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11TH

  1. Bartolo Colon (40%) vs. WSH
  2. Nathan Eovaldi (17%) @MIL
  3. Danny Duffy (46%) vs. BOS
  4. Allen Webster (1%) @KC
  5. Randall Delgado (0%) @SF
  6. Ricky Nolasco (13%) @CLE
  7. Cory Rasmus (1%) @TEX
  8. Robbie Ross (1%) vs. LAA

This is a perfect example of a concept I’ve discussed at great length in this column, but should probably refresh just in time for the playoffs – you don’t always have to stream. Obviously if you play in a league where Bartolo Colon, Nathan Eovaldi, or Danny Duffy are available you can run them out, however after that the picking get slim very, very quickly. Allen Webster and Randall Delgado each have an incurable case of the walks, not to mention that Delgado, who has a very promising 11.45 K/9 as a reliever, can seem to strike out anyone as a starter (only 3.65 per nine in three starts in 2014). Honestly, the most interesting name on this list of scrubs, whether it be through family name or match-up, is Cory Rasmus, yet there’s no guarantee that he’ll work even ten batters into the game. While Rasmus has started his past two outings for the Angels, he’s faced just 19 opposing hitters, striking out six and walking just two – good line, if it happened to be a single trip to the mound. Texas does have the lowest team ISO (.090) in the past month of play and they also rank in the lower third of baseball in walks drawn over that period, so Rasmus might be able to keep his pitch count low enough to work into the fourth or fifth, but it’s just not deep enough to be relevant. Stay away from the lower half of this list – they could ruin your ratios.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12TH

  1. Jose Quintana (43%) vs. MIN
  2. Henderson Alvarez (33%) @PHI
  3. Brandon McCarthy (39%) @BAL
  4. Kevin Gausman (13%) vs. NYY
  5. Carlos Carrasco (49%) @DET
  6. Bud Norris (17%) vs. NYY
  7. Jorge De La Rosa (25%) @STL
  8. Clay Buchholz (42%) @KC
  9. Vidal Nuno (4%) vs. SD
  10. Dillon Gee (21%) vs. WSH

He’s back! Returning to both Miami’s lineup and the eligibility of streaming is Henderson Alvarez, who, after a combination of injury and underwhelming performances, is just 33% owned in Yahoo! leagues even after being named a National League All-Star just two months prior. Clearly there are legitimate concerns about the former Blue Jay prospect as he hasn’t pitched since the first of the month and he’ll be away from the comfy confines of Marlins Park (Alvarez has a 1.75 ERA at home compared to less than stellar 4.09 ERA on the road), but much like with Brandon McCarthy and his tough match-up with Baltimore and Carlos Carrasco in Detroit – these are guys that should just be owned, not streamed, therefore you should just be starting them anyway. Plus, if Philadelphia is a stay-away, then that doesn’t really leave a ton of options. The Phillies rank in the lower third in ISO (.125) and the Top 10 in strikeout percentage (20.9%) for the season and have been dominated by Alvarez in 2014. In three outings, the righty has pitched to a 1.31 ERA with one of those starts coming at Citizens Bank Park, where the Marlin surrendered just a single earned run over 6.2 innings. Alvarez still has the ability to circumvent excessive damage by not walking batters and limiting the amount of base runners he faces, he’s given up only 1.69 free passes per nine, and a 15.9% HR/FB ratio on the road is way too inflated for a 55% ground ball pitcher. Take advantage of the situation. Pick up Alvarez and hold onto him for the stretch run.

 



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