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Josh Harrison will come to rue BABIP.

BABIP Files: Identifying Potential Sleepers and Busts at Third Base


BaseballFantasyMLB

I think it’s time we skip the pleasantries and get right to it. By this time you’ve read The BABIP Files for Catcher, First Base, and Second Base. You know we’re trying to identify potential sleepers and busts by comparing a player’s 2014 Batting Average on Balls in Play, to the BABIP numbers they put up in the previous five years. BABIP Differential is a simple idea really; just a quick peek to see if 2014 looks out of line with their career norms. Once we’ve identified some BABIP  outliers we can look a little deeper at their batted ball data to see if there is anything in their peripherals that could explain the extreme BABIPs.

After some discussion on Twitter I do want to make one thing clear though. When I say five-year BABIP history, for some player’s that’s a bit misleading. A younger player, say Kolten Wong, does not have five years to go off of. In those cases I’ve just used whatever history they have to compare 2014 against. It can make some BABIP Differential numbers less meaningful, so I’ll try to point those cases out in the notes below the table. With that in mind below is the data for the third basemen of 2014 that I deemed Fantasy worthy in most Fantasy formats. As always I like to go deep enough to keep you AL an NL-only people happy, because I’m one of you. Make sure you check out the notes below the table for additional insight.

 

2014 BABIP Differential for Third Basemen

Name
2014 AVG
2014 BABIP
5-Year BABIP
BABIP Diff
Justin Turner
.340
.404
.296
.108
Juan Uribe
.311
.368
.283
.085
Josh Harrison
.315
.353
.275
.078
Steve Tolleson
.253
.336
.264
.072
Brock Holt
.281
.349
.282
.067
Conor Gillaspie
.282
.325
.263
.062
Lonnie Chisenhall
.280
.328
.274
.054
Casey McGehee
.287
.335
.284
.051
Don Kelly
.245
.299
.248
.051
Luis Valbuena
.249
.294
.258
.036
Adrian Beltre
.324
.345
.311
.034
Cody Asche
.252
.315
.287
.028
Trevor Plouffe
.258
.299
.274
.025
Todd Frazier
.273
.309
.286
.023
Danny Valencia
.258
.317
.295
.022
Aramis Ramirez
.285
.310
.299
.011
Kevin Frandsen
.259
.289
.279
.010
Anthony Rendon
.287
.314
.307
.007
Kyle Seager
.268
.296
.290
.006
Martin Prado
.282
.310
.307
.003
Manny Machado
.278
.317
.316
.001
Nolan Arenado
.287
.294
.296
-.002
Ryan Zimmerman
.280
.313
.319
-.006
Mike Aviles
.247
.271
.279
-.008
Pablo Sandoval
.279
.300
.313
-.013
Chris Johnson
.263
.345
.361
-.016
David Freese
.260
.330
.347
-.017
Evan Longoria
.253
.285
.304
-.019
Matt Dominguez
.215
.244
.264
-.020
David Wright
.269
.325
.346
-.021
Pedro Alvarez
.231
.277
.299
-.022
Will Middlebrooks
.191
.273
.295
-.022
Kelly Johnson
.215
.266
.291
-.025
Xander Bogaerts
.240
.296
.323
-.027
Chase Headley
.243
.301
.332
-.031
Matt Carpenter
.272
.318
.351
-.033
Josh Donaldson
.255
.278
.313
-.035
Juan Francisco
.220
.297
.333
-.036
Marcus Semien
.234
.310
.348
-.038
Brett Lawrie
.247
.260
.300
-.040
Mike Moustakas
.212
.220
.274
-.054
Freddy Galvis
.176
.198
.263
-.065
Mark Reynolds
.196
.218
.286
-.068

 

Positive BABIP Differential

Let’s take a deeper look at a few of the players BABIP Differential seems to indicate are due for a fall.

  • Juan Uribe – Let’s just use Uribe’s 14 big league seasons and say another .311 batting average is highly unlikely.  If he can reach 2013’s .278 be happy.
  • Josh Harrison – Mr. Harrison has some ‘splainin’ to do.In 532 at-bats prior to 2014, Harrison has hit .250 with 7 Hrs, and 13 SBs. What are we to make of his .315 AVG, with 13 HRs and 18 SBs in 520 ABs in 2014? That .078 BABIP Differential is pretty huge. Is there anything in his peripherals to explain it? It’s a little contradictory to be sure. Harrison did increase his LD% over five percent to 24.0, but he also hit more fly balls and few grounders than in 2013. In fact his 2014 batted ball data is similar to what he did in 2012 when he hit .233. To add some icing on the crapcake, he also struck out at a career-high 14.7% rate. To be blunt there’s not a chance Josh Harrison comes close to what he did last season.
  • Brock Holt – Prior to 2014 Holt had 124 at-bats so there’s no real baseline here. He’s unlikely to post a 26.4 LD% again, so that batting average may fall a bit. Still the scout in me likes his swing and says Holt is a solid hitter who should put up passable numbers in a limited role. AL-only leaguers need to hope he gets some middle infield eligibility to be of much use though.
  • Conor Gillaspie – Though his power was down from 2013, Gillaspie had himself a mini-breakout last season and was a useful player in deeper formats. Unfortunately much of the batting average bump  looks BABIP related and at age 27 there’s no real upside. Feel free to use him in AL-only leagues, but a regression is likely.
  • Lonnie Chisenhall – Let me first say that I want Chisenhall to be good. I love his swing and see good things in it. That being said, Chisenhall’s .218 batting average in the second half is pretty indicative of his career thus far. He’s just an inconsistent player. I could see him taking an overall step forward in 2015, but there’s an equal chance of a complete bust. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing him late and hoping he slowly figures things out. Just be ready to jump ship if he starts out poorly.
  • Casey McGehee – Which player is McGehee, the middle infielder with a lower average and decent pop, or the third baseman with no power and a plus average? Steamer says a bad combination of both of the above, and I tend to agree. If he had middle infield eligibility, he might be of slight interest, bat at third base there’s not enough upside to justify rostering him in mixed leagues. 2014 was a nice story McGehee won’t be reliving.
  • Adrian Beltre – Another veteran where we don’t need to overreact to slight variance in his batting average. With Beltre I’m more concerned about age and injuries. He’s played 148 games or more in each of the last three seasons, but it always feels like he’s day-to-day. You obviously play Beltre in all leagues, but I believe there is increasing risk and for the price I’m probably looking elsewhere.

 

Negative BABIP Differential

And now a look at the second basemen that seemed to be on the unfortunate side of things in 2014.

  • Chase Headley – BABIP says Headley’s batting average will bounce back a little and actually it probably already did with a .262 average once he went to New York. His 27.4 LD% last year was surprising to me and agrees with BABIP; a higher average is in store. What Fantasy owners want more of though, is health and homers, and the 11.7 HR/FB rate as a Yankee isn’t promising. There’s room for a bit of upside here, but 2012’s 21.4 HR/FB% sure looks out of place. Just don’t reach and then hope he stays healthy… Besides no one really wants to watch Arod play third base anymore.
  • Matt Carpenter – While Carpenter may not be the .318 hitter he was in 2013, he should be able to better last year’s .272. His batted ball data from last year more closely resembles what he did in 2012 and that’s what I’m expecting in 2015. Those are solid numbers for a middle infield… Yeah, about that third base only eligibility.
  • Josh Donaldson – In general I think people have overblown how much the move to a better ballpark and a better offense will help Donaldson, but BABIP seems to be another point in his favor. BABIP alone though, doesn’t explain his .255 average last year. Donaldson’s LD% had been over 20 percent in 2012 and 2013, but it dropped to 13.5 percent last season. Over almost 700 plate appearances that’s a lot less line drives. While the counting stats should look nice in Toronto, Donaldson may not hit for the average some are expecting. He’s definitely not worth the first round pick I’m seeing by some Fantasy owners.
  • Brett Lawrie – I covered Lawrie in the BABIP Files for Second Base. That’s where you’ll want to use him anyway.
  • Mike Moustakas – Everytime I hear his name I think “mouse tacos.” Gross and completely annoying. Moustakas wants to be good. His swing looks nice. In fact he did have a career-best 20.2 LD% in 2014. In the end though, we’re left wanting. After almost 2000 Major League plate appearances maybe it’s time to just admit there may not be as much upside as we thought. A .250 average with 15-20 HRs may bethe most we can hope for. How depressing. Makes me want to binge on mouse tacos…
  • Mark Reynolds – I am guaranteeing you that Mark Reynolds improves on his .196 batting average from 2014. You see the Cardinals are a smart organization and they will play Reynolds only against left-handed pitching. Genius! Wait, Reynolds hit .173 against lefties last year. But for his career he’s hit .002 higher gainst lefties (.231 vs. .229). Ahah! I think Reynolds can manage a .215 average in 2015. Pure Fantasy gold… for 20-team NL-only leagues… Who am I kidding? Reynolds is done, but he’ll always have 2009.


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