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Head to Head Draft Strategy for Tout Wars H2H

Head to Head Draft Strategy – The Anatomy of Tout Wars H2H


Baseball

Even after 25 years of playing Fantasy Baseball I still get amped up for every draft. Now bump that up about tenfold for the recent Tout Wars H2H Auction. H2H Draft Strategy is always a little tricky, but this was an auction, and the setup ended up making it as unpredictable as any draft I’ve ever taken part in.

2016 is my second year in Tout Wars, but last year I was part of the Tout Wars X initiative, that used a variation of Ron Shandler’s, Shandler Park monthly format. This year the Touts that be decided it was time to enter the head to head scene, and oh what a scene it turned out to be.

The bulk of my Fantasy gameplay is in traditional roto, but I’ve done my fair share of head to head, so I was not intimidated at all… until I got more information on the format.

Tout Wars Head to Head is a 12-team mixed league, using 5 x 5 roto-style scoring on a weekly basis to earn your win-loss record. In addition to the H2H record, each team can also earn wins by tradional roto scoring for the first half, second half, and overall season standings.

But let’s get back to that 5 x 5. It’s not your traditional 5 x 5 we’re talking about. Take a look at the scoring categories and you’ll start to understand my trepidation.

Hitting: OBP, R, HR, RBI, Net SB

Pitching: QS + W, ERA, WHIP, K/9, Net SV

The hitting categories don’t veer too far off the beaten H2H path. It is an OBP league and the Net Steals thing is a small tweak, but nothing I wasn’t ready to deal with.

The pitching categories however had the league participants in a tizzy. The Wins plus Quality Starts is a bit different, but it’s the use of K/9 instead of total strikeouts that forced every to reevaluate their head to head strategy.

At first glance the presence of only one category where starting pitchers would excel seemed to devalue starting pitchers greatly. After all there are a bunch of relievers who can match even the top starting pitchers in K/9, ERA, and WHIP. And of course starting pitchers aren’t exactly known for saves.

In reality I’m not so sure about starting pitching being devalued though. There is a 950 innings pitched minimum. You likely had to roster at least three or four starters to reach that innings minimum. So you couldn’t completely dump starting pitchers, but what about going the cheap route and saving money for relievers and more offense. Here’s the fault in those stars.

Even if an owner rostered just four starting pitchers, they were still going to be responsible for 75 percent or more of each team’s innings. Those three rate categories (ERA, WHIP, K/9) makes it very hard to rely on marginal pitchers for the bulk of your innings. You’d not only be dumping W + QS, but bottom half finishes in the rate categories would be almost assured. That’s a recipe for embarrassment.

My Tout Wars Head to Head Draft Strategy

Because of the unique scoring used I entered the Tout Wars Head to Head auction with some basic strategies. On the hitting side I was going to focus on balance and avoid any big OBP holes. Nothing genius here, just trying to allow myself the flexibility to compete against a variety of different lineups.

My plan was a little different for my pitching staff. I was looking to roster just four starting pitchers; two Fantasy ace types, and two more starters with high K/9 rates and solid peripherals. Then I wanted to roster as many high K, low WHIP relievers as I could. My four starters would hopefully put up consistent rate stats, and also maximize the value of my hopefully elite relief crew. I found out after the auction that quite a few other owners entered the auction with similar strategies. Onxce again I wasn’t the only self-professed genius in the room.

Did my strategy work? Maybe. I love the pitching staff I build, but I’m a little worried about power on the hitting side. Read on for an analysis of my teams and a look into whether my head to head draft strategy paid off.

My Tout Wars H2H Hitters

I’ve been waiting a little long at catcher in some of the mock drafts I’ve been doing, so I made it a priority to spend a little extra in Tout. In Kyle Schwarber and Travis d’Arnaud, I got two of my favorite catchers for a combined $32. While I may have overpaid a bit for Schwarber, I feel like I got it back in value for d’Arnaud.

Pos.
Player
$$
C
Schwarber, Kyle
23
C
d’Arnaud, Travis
9
1B
Fielder, Prince
23
3B
Donaldson, Josh
38
CI
Lind, Adam
1
2B
Wong, Kolten
6
SS
Tulowitzki, Troy
18
MI
Lawrie, Brett
1
OF
Gardner, Brett
6
OF
Ellsbury, Jacoby
8
OF
Choo, Shin-soo
7
OF
Burns, Billy
6
OF
Harrison, Josh
2
UT
Morales, Kendrys
6
R
Napoli, Mike
R
Martin, Leonys

I’m pretty happy with my corners. I paid $38 for Donaldson pretty early in the draft and thought it was a bit high. Then I saw Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo goes for $47 apiece and I felt much better. Fielder is not the monster he was at one time, but he did quietly put up a .378 OBP. My other corner options are Adam Lind and Mike Napoli. Neither sets my loins afire, but both have the potential to contribute.

My middle infield looks completely different than I would have thought ahead of time. I’m not all that high on Troy Tulowitzki this year, but when bidding ended at $18 I was plenty happy to buy. If he can stay moderately healthy he’ll do fine in that Toronto lineup even if he isn’t the same player he used to be. Kolten Wong was also someone I didn’t foresee rostering, but I was happy with him at $6. My initial middle infield selection was Josh Harrison, who I really like for $2, but I later moved him to outfield when the best $1 player at the end was Brett Lawrie.

Outfield is where I’m a bit worried. I made it to the first break in the auction with no outfielders, and all the big boppers were gone. I feel good about the value I got in Ellsbury, Choo, Gardner, and Burns, but their lack of power may haunt me.

I added Kendrys Morales at my utility slot and have Leonys Martin on my bench. I will have to be active on the waiver wire early in the year, because my depth is non-existent. If one of my hitters gets hurt, I may feel the pain.

My Tout Wars H2H Pitchers

I absolutely love my pitching staff. Check out the first five pitchers I purchased along with their 2015 K/9 rates:

Pos.
Player
$$
P
Strasburg, Stephen
26
P
Vizcaino, Arodys
8
P
Kluber, Corey
27
P
Kimbrel, Craig
17
P
Giles, Ken
9
P
Iwakuma, Hisashi
3
P
Shields, James
4
P
Liriano, Francisco
5
P
Matz, Steven
7
R
Napoli, Mike
R
Colome, Alex
R
Bailey, Andrew
R
Madson, Ryan
R
Smith, Carson

Stephen Strasburg (11.0 K/9)
Corey Kluber (9.9 K/ 9)
Craig Kimbrel (13.2 K/9)
Ken Giles (11.2 K/9)
Arodys Vizcaino (9,9 K/9)

James Shields and Hisashi Iwakuma fell to me at prices I liked. I then planned on grabbing a couple more high impact relievers, but Francisco Liriano and Stephen Matz were getting no respect and I had to grab them at $5 and $7 respectively.

Taking those last two pitchers at a nice discount did hurt me though. I’d knowingly overpaid early for Vizcaino at $8, with the idea of rostering Jason Grilli for a few bucks later on. That would give me all the Atlanta saves and two pretty good high-K/9 relievers. Matz filled up my last pitching slot, and while I love him, it might be a mistake that will come back to haunt me. In hindsight I probably should have passed on Iwakuma or Shields, but you can’t assume that pitchers like Matz and Liriano will go for the low prices they did.

In the reserve rounds I added some pretty nice upside relief arms in Alex Colome, Andrew Bailey, Ryan Madson, and Carson Smith. Colome and Bailey could start the year as closers, and Madson could certainly close if Sean Doolittle’s health continues to be a problem. I don’t see Smith overtaking Kimbrel, but he is another high octane arm with solid ERA, WHIP, and K/9 rates.

My Fanal Take on the Tout Wars H2H Auction

The unique scoring categories made this very interesting. It was also a rather diverse group of experts with varying auction strategies. The top tier players went for outrageous (to me) prices, but other than that it was hard to discern any type of pattern or flow. Each auction takes on a life of its own, but this one seemed to thrash about wildly.

In the end I feel like I did relatively well. I should have one of the top few pitching staffs with enough quality starters to actually stream a bit. I do lack power, but should do well in OBP, Runs, and SB. In the end I think/hope I have enough balance to win 6 or 7 categories on a consistent basis. If that happens the end of year roto totals will take care of themselves.

What did you think of my Head to Head Draft Strategy for Tout H2H? Is my offense too thin?

You can get more info on Tout Wars H2h here, and please check out the full rosters (click H2H tab) to let me know what you think.



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